Regarding Walsh's speech at tonight's global central bank annual meeting, here are a few points I want to discuss from a personal perspective: 1. I remembered a previous Financial Times report that mentioned sources close to Walsh revealed he admitted to making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks in office. These included failing to sufficiently emphasize his core message about price stability and causing confusion about whether his long-term plans to reform the Fed would impact short-term policy decisions. Of course, these sources believe these mistakes are not significant enough to make Walsh change his direction of "streamlining communication and reducing forward guidance." From a personal perspective, if there’s this kind of reflection, it’s likely to be reflected in his actions. 2. Recently, the market's core issue has been the persistently high long-term bond yields. A few days ago, I discussed this here: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2092465021867745338?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A. Last time, when the US 10-year yield hit 5%, it was pushed down through a series of coordinated moves, with Powell strongly signaling no rate hikes, which played a significant role. Thinking about tonight’s situation, even if Walsh wants to push inflation down to 2%, he might still need to cooperate with Besant to suppress long-term yields, rather than acting independently and aggressively. 3. At the July FOMC meeting, Walsh mentioned that speeches at the central bank annual meeting are either macro-vision presentations or traditional warm-ups for a series of actions between September and December. Powell’s previous speeches were often the latter, but this time, it feels like Walsh will opt for the former—a macro-vision-style speech. The logic is: On one hand, back in June and July, we discussed that his five working groups hadn’t reached conclusions yet, so he’s likely to hold off on major moves for now. On the other hand, the theme of his speech this time is "Financial Innovation, Payments, and Policy," so tonight’s speech will likely focus heavily on macro-vision topics, such as: - Stablecoins, digital payments, and payment system innovation; - How financial innovation impacts monetary policy transmission; - Short-term demand increases and equipment price hikes driven by AI capital expenditures; - Long-term productivity improvements and supply capacity growth from AI; - Fed data, communication mechanisms, balance sheet, and policy framework reforms. These topics. 4. He’ll likely address some market concerns but won’t provide complete answers. - Hawkish stance on inflation, keeping policy options open; - Explicitly retaining the option to hike rates but not committing to a September hike. Overall, I personally think he probably won’t be overly hawkish, but he won’t be completely dovish either. As long as he’s not hawkish, it’ll be a boost for the current market. Let’s see if I get proven wrong