Fu Haitang's Trading Philosophy (Born as a farmer, 50000 → 120 million → billions of 'Northern Beggars') 1 | Follow the heavens and always stand on the side of the laws of heaven Core logic: The operation of all things follows the Tao of Heaven, and the cycle of prosperity and decline, as well as the alternation of ups and downs, is a natural law that cannot be reversed by humans in the long run. The market can be disturbed by funds in the short term, but it will inevitably return to objective laws in the long term. Trading is not a game with the market, but a response to the objective trend; Operating against the law, even the largest amount of funds will eventually be eliminated by the market. 2 | Supply and demand determine prices, and the candlestick is only a result rather than a cause Core logic: The root cause of commodity fluctuations is only one: supply and demand relationship. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are bound to rise; Supply exceeds demand, and prices are bound to decline. K-lines, indicators, and moving averages are all traces left after the market has finished, belonging to the "fruit" category. Staring solely at charts for research is equivalent to judging the essence through shadows; Grasping the real changes in supply and demand is the key to grasping the "cause" of the market. 3 | The extreme will reverse, there is no probability below the extreme, only inevitability Core logic: When prices fall below industry costs, companies continue to suffer losses, production capacity will continue to withdraw, supply will continue to shrink, and market reversal is only a matter of time; Prices have risen to the high profit range, production capacity has expanded wildly, demand has been suppressed, and a decline is also inevitable. There is no need to rely on winning rate games. When the market reaches an extreme range, reversal is a highly probable event, which is also the core foundation of Fu Haitang's trading system. 4 | Cost as anchor, stay away from extreme prices, and maintain a safety margin Core logic: Prices always fluctuate around production costs. The price is much lower than the production cost, with limited downward space and long-term upward momentum; The price is much higher than the production cost, and the risks above continue to accumulate. Do not short at low levels and do not long at high levels. Cost is the most intuitive yardstick for judging the safety margin of the market. 5 | Five dimensional resonance, only capturing high certainty opportunities Core logic: A single signal can easily lead to misjudgment, and only when all five conditions are met simultaneously can the market certainty be high enough. Five conditions: low price range, low inventory, widespread industry losses, steady improvement in demand, and deep discount of futures to spot. Multiple conditions mutually confirm each other, filter out a large number of oscillation false signals, and achieve the goal of "only losing time, not losing principal". 6 | Hard work outside the market, on-site research surpasses all research reports Core logic: There is a lag and deviation in public data and institutional research reports. Only by conducting on-site visits to production areas, warehouses, and upstream and downstream enterprises can we grasp the real inventory, operating rates, and market sentiment. The first-hand industry information is the key to predicting the turning point of supply and demand. Sitting in front of the screen and looking at the picture, you can never get the most authentic underlying information of the market. 7 | Give up frequent trading and wait for your own big market trend Core logic: There are very few high winning market trends in a year, and the vast majority of the time is a volatile market. Frequent entry and exit constantly consume transaction fees and amplify emotional mistakes. Without the opportunity to comply with the system, patiently empty positions and focus on extreme market conditions where there is a huge contradiction between supply and demand. Seizing one or two waves a year is enough to achieve the goal. 8 | Certainty determines position, logical falsification leads to immediate exit Core logic: There is no such thing as a forever full position trading method. When the market enters an extreme range, the supply-demand contradiction is clear, and the certainty is extremely high, the position can be reasonably enlarged; If the market is unclear, take a light position and wait and see. Unlike traditional stop loss thinking, Fu Haitang does not set stop losses at a fixed point. Once the underlying logic changes and the supply and demand pattern is falsified, regardless of profit or loss, he will leave the market immediately. Fu Haitang's four taboos: frequent operation of heavy positions, constant increase in floating profits, excessive reliance on technical analysis, and blindly following market news. The entire system is closed-loop: relying on the Heavenly Way to recognize the cycle → relying on supply and demand to find contradictions → waiting for the extreme range where things will inevitably reverse → conducting field research to verify and judge → layout after multiple conditions resonate → patiently holding, decisively exiting with logical destruction.