金十数据|Aug 25, 2026 11:41
Goldman Sachs stated that there are many ways to measure inflation expectations across four key groups (households, businesses, professional forecasting institutions, and investors). While market-based and forecasting institution indicators remain stable, what about the expectations of businesses and consumers, which are most relevant to economic decision-making? Over the past five years, inflation has indeed significantly pushed up the level of long-term expectations and their sensitivity to actual inflation, making them higher than in 2019. However, Goldman Sachs' analytical model shows that, considering the 'memory' of over a decade of low inflation, the current levels and sensitivities of inflation expectations are below those of the mid-2000s and only slightly higher than the levels seen since 2009, when inflation consistently remained around 2%. Moreover, the increase in expectation levels and sensitivity to high inflation is more pronounced among younger respondents compared to older ones, reflecting the impact of the memory of prolonged low inflation. (This constitutes a clear expectation gap. In current market and Federal Reserve discussions, one of the core risks is that 'prolonged high inflation could lead to unanchored expectations,' but Goldman Sachs' model results are relatively moderate, directly challenging the more pessimistic narrative.)
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink