Belinda
Belinda|Aug 20, 2026 17:35
In retrospect, Unitree day one listing on STAR market could have been be a good short opportunity. The 50-60b market cap for a company that only shipped 18k units and 38m profits is just unreal. Right now it is priced as if it has already demonstrated the path to general-purpose embodied intelligence. But even the founder Wang Xingxing acknowledged the gap and said the major software breakthrough could optimistically take another 2-3 years or longer. But I wouldn't bet the farm against it. A few reasons: 1. low float, high fdv, could short squeeze easily Only 10% of the company is sold and many strategy allocations are locked up. Only few extremely lucky retails can sell and that sell pressure is totally expected for the wealth effect narrative. 2. strong backing from beijing Unitree is not just a company anymore, it's becoming a national champion. It's a flagship asset for one of China's highest-priority industries. It's a name card for China at home and abroad. China is in a kingmaking mode. 3. it anchors the whole industry There are many cn robotics factories lining up for IPOs. Unitree's good performance can create a self-reinforcing financing flywheel. Apart from the above, there is a geopolitical scarcity premium. Many people who believe China has structural manufacturing advantages. There aren't many clean proxies so Unitree is the flagship pure-play here. Buying Unitree is like buying an option on China winning the embodied AI race. Fundamentals for sure tell you what something should be worth but the market structure, narrative and especially national policy can determine how things can develop, sometimes for a very long time! It has been fun to monitor the dynamics!(Belinda)
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