How big is the fish tail market in the semiconductor midfield review The current semiconductor market is somewhat like a replica of Nvidia's 24 year old script. Let's take a look back at what happened at that time: From July 11 to August 5, 2024, Nvidia fell from approximately $134 to $90.94, a decrease of 33%. On the news front, the triggering factors for the decline include rumors of Blackwell's extension starting in July, reports from the US Department of Justice's antitrust investigation, and finally, on August 5th, the central bank's interest rate hike triggered the liquidation of carry trades, causing a global risk asset panic selling to hit a low point, which is known as "asset selling influenced by both fundamental and macro factors". From August 8th to September 6th, there was a rebound in oversold stocks, accompanied by some policy loosening in line with macroeconomic policies; But not exceeding the previous high, Nvidia's "excellent but imperfect" financial report triggered a decline. Subsequently, on September 11th, Nvidia announced that Blackwell had been fully put into production and began shipping in Q4. Nvidia rose 8% in a single day and then fell again, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50bp for the first time in four years. Nvidia's stock price once again broke a historical high on November 8th. What can we learn from history? What are the characteristics of a phased peak? Technical aspect: Double top or no high pressure position before breaking; At the same time, the candlestick pattern shows a bearish trend with a bearish candlestick pattern; Crowded funding and high leverage: In June 2024, 70% of fund managers believed that long Mag7 was the most crowded trading, while short positions in small cap stocks were close to historical records. The entire market is crowded on the same side of the ship; In the first five trading days ending on August 27, 2018, Nvidia's stock price reached another peak range, with retail investors net buying $1.4 billion in NVDA, while the second ranked Tesla was only in the $100 million to $200 million range during the same period, a gap of nearly ten times. NVDL (Double Long NVDA ETF) had a net inflow of $3.5 billion throughout the year and has repeatedly become the most active variety in the entire market during trading. Fundamental: Nvidia's earnings and guidance exceeded expectations on August 28th, but due to a 3% decrease in gross profit margin, the post market stock price fell nearly 7% So it is not difficult to find that the characteristic of a temporary top is the appearance of a top shape feature on the technical side, while the combination of the financial side increases vulnerability (high concentration, high leverage). Once there is any movement on the fundamental and news sides, the stock price will immediately plummet. The practical approach is to immediately reduce positions and avoid risks once there are technical identification characteristics, only when there is excessive leverage and concentration in the capital side, and confirm the downward trend before selling. 2. Bottom features Technical aspect: On August 5th, the physical K-line opened low and rose long, with sufficient volume. 553 million shares was the largest daily trading volume during that period, exceeding all previous and subsequent trading days; On August 6th, on the previous day's physical platform, there was a confirmation of the reverse package; On the 7th, the rebound did not break the previous low. These three days have formed a signal of technical bottoming out. We will confirm again through the financial aspect: the VIX index hit a record high of 65 on the same day, ranking third in history; The Nikkei -12.4% (the largest since 1987) and KOSPI -9% triggered circuit breakers in the peripheral market, and all panic indicators at the market level exploded, which also means that the selling pressure has reached its extreme value; Fundamentally, the main negative triggering chain is the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on July 31, the closing of yen carry trades, and the US non farm payroll of 114000 yuan in July, which is far below expectations and belongs to the macro negative decline of the market, unrelated to Nvidia's fundamentals. The logic behind September 6th is similar, but not as extreme as August 5th. At the bottom, we can also observe characteristics. Firstly, there is a bottoming out pattern in the technical aspect, especially in terms of quantity and performance confirmation. Secondly, the logic of downward killing does not touch on the fundamentals of enterprise operation, but rather is a one-time event and short-term impact on the overall market. Ultimately, excellent enterprises will repair their mistakes in price.