qinbafrank|Aug 17, 2026 11:57
NVIDIA's CPO supply chain and the full-scale mass production of the NVIDIA Spectrum-X CPO switch carry significant meaning: the investment logic for CPO is shifting. Previously, the market was worried about potential delays and whether the timeline would be pushed back. Now, NVIDIA has responded to those concerns and doubts with action—production is not only on schedule but accelerating. As a result, the market is now focusing on questions like: 'Which companies are already part of the mass production chain? Can yield rates remain stable? When will customers deploy on a large scale? And how much value does each unit hold?'
Bank of America has categorized the CPO supply chain into seven tiers, covering areas such as optical engines, precision optics, lasers, fiber connections, packaging, testing, and equipment. The technical barriers, value, and competitive landscape vary significantly across these segments. Among them, optical engines have the highest value, with FAU showing the most potential for performance elasticity, while assembly, testing, and automation equipment determine whether CPO can truly achieve large-scale mass production.
In the short term, mass production will primarily benefit silicon photonics manufacturers, packaging and testing providers, FAU, laser module, and system assembly suppliers already integrated into NVIDIA's production system.
In the mid-to-long term, as shipment volumes enter a steep growth phase between 2028 and 2029, the performance elasticity of FAU, external laser sources, and precision optical components may become even more pronounced.
What really needs to be tracked moving forward: customer certifications, order shares, yield rates, production expansion speed, and the cost reduction margin of CPO compared to traditional pluggable solutions.
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