Weekly Macro Outlook: Fed Minutes and PMI Incoming, Can Korean Stocks Sustain the Technical Bull Market? Market Eyes Three Key Variables

BlockBeats News, August 16—Over the past week, global financial markets saw a general rebound in risk appetite. The U.S. stock market's S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit new highs for the current phase, with the trading narrative shifting from defensive risk aversion back to rate-cut expectations and AI earnings realization. Tech stocks and chip stocks led the rally. South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 11.5% cumulatively, ending seven consecutive weeks of decline and returning to a technical bull market. The U.S. Dollar Index remained almost flat for the week, as improved inflation data lowered expectations for Fed rate hikes. On Friday, unexpectedly negative retail sales data accelerated the dollar's decline. Next week, the focus will be on three key variables: 1. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can achieve a genuine breakthrough. Iran and Oman are working to finalize agreements on shipping routes and map out navigation plans, but the U.S. has not participated in the negotiations and maintains a tough stance. Actual shipping volumes remain very low. If a joint statement is issued, the U.S. signals an easing of the blockade, and shipping volumes continue to improve, geopolitical premiums on oil prices may decline, and risk appetite could recover. 2. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July meeting early Thursday morning. The market will watch for whether there are additional committee members leaning toward rate hikes beyond the publicly dissenting voices, as well as officials' assessments of whether energy and tariff shocks are spreading to service prices. 3. The preliminary PMI data for the U.S. and Europe will be released on Friday. If the data weakens, it will further solidify expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in September. Key events for next week (Beijing Time): - Tuesday, 20:15: U.S. ADP weekly employment change as of August 1 - Wednesday, 02:00: Federal Reserve releases July monetary policy meeting minutes - Wednesday, 20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, U.S. August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - Friday, 07:30: Japan July Core CPI YoY - Friday, 21:45: U.S. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, U.S. August S&P Global Services PMI preliminary reading