The weekend bull has become popular, and I can't help but think of Shib from 2021. It's a truly phenomenal MEME that has been popular for the whole year of 2021 As long as you don't enter after November 2021, you can earn money in the first 10 months no matter when you get on the car, with a market value peak of over 50 billion US dollars Actually, they are all products of loose liquidity. This is the essence. Since low interest rates and rampant liquidity in 20-21, until today. Currently, there is still no loose liquidity. The federal interest rate in the United States is still at 3.5-3.75, while it will be 0-0.25 in 2021 So the market game is still about interest rate cuts/expectations of interest rate hikes, so how can we raise interest rates and interest rates? Currently, the market is looking at inflation, and inflation is looking at oil prices If there had been no geopolitical situation between the US and Iran at the beginning of the year, perhaps inflation would have gone down earlier, and the expectation of interest rate cuts would have come earlier. The risk market would have started to expect loose liquidity and boosted it. But there is no 'if'. Now that oil prices have become sensitive to most news and have decreased, we must consider the navigation issues in the Strait of Hormuz The agreement reached between Yi and Amanda last night is not a matter of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the fluctuation of oil prices has little impact. Moreover, this can be considered an optimistic expectation, but it is not as optimistic. In the end, it is up to Trump. As the mid-term election approaches, how will Trump choose? Should we continue to escalate military actions or impose economic sanctions to slow down oil prices and wait until after the midterm elections? Of course, I hope the oil price can come down, after all, there are still empty orders, and there has been no further escalation action since August. For the mid-term election, Trump also wants to lower the oil price and hit the expectation of interest rate increase. If the expectation of interest rate increase continues to rise in September and October, Trump will really be in trouble. But in any case, in the medium to long term, this year will not be loose, and next year it will also be loose As for the short term, at least Iran has extended an olive branch, showing a positive push while also wanting the US to meet the conditions in order to allow navigation through the strait Let's see how Trump will advance in the short term. Personally, I think subjectively that oil prices will come down soon. Of course, this is just an individual If the expectation of interest rate hikes is not dispelled, it will remain unchanged and at most engage in short-term trading, The long-term trend of the rebound market in the game is still being observed. Ultimately, it depends on when the expectation of interest rate cuts can be met.