*"Mr. Xiaolong · Today's Thoughts"* ---- The true scarcity of Bitcoin isn't in the last 4.4%, but in the portion still available for market trading. In a tweet from CZ four hours ago, he mentioned: As of August 2026, over 20.07 million Bitcoins will have been mined, leaving only about 4.4% of the theoretical 21 million cap. What's even more interesting is his estimate that 10%–20% of the existing Bitcoin supply has already been lost, locked, or permanently unrecoverable. While this percentage can't be precisely verified, long-term studies on "lost BTC" consistently point to a figure in the millions. This raises an often-overlooked question: 21 million coins doesn't mean all 21 million can be sold. If a significant portion of BTC permanently exits circulation in the future, then Bitcoin's true scarcity should be measured by: *"How many BTC are actually willing to enter the market for trading?"* ...rather than *"How many BTC are left to be mined?"* These are two entirely different concepts. Miners are still producing BTC every day, but the new supply is nearing its end. At the same time, some early BTC—due to lost private keys, deceased holders, damaged wallets, or long-term dormancy—has effectively exited the liquid market. So, in my opinion, the most interesting and valuable aspect of Bitcoin isn't just the "21 million cap," but the fact that it experiences a triple contraction: 1. New supply is shrinking. 2. New circulation is shrinking. 3. A portion of the existing supply is permanently disappearing. This is Bitcoin's true "deflationary property." Of course, this doesn't mean BTC will only go up. Scarcity addresses the supply side, but price is ultimately determined by supply, demand, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and market consensus. However, if we look at the longer term, one fact is becoming increasingly important: The real competition in the future might not be for the last 1 million BTC, but for the BTC that people are still willing to sell. As more BTC transitions from "tradable assets" to "long-term store of value," the pricing logic of the Bitcoin market will also change. 21 million is the hard-coded number in the protocol. The true scarcity lies in the BTC that is still willing to circulate in the market. This might be the most underestimated layer of Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative. CZ once said that the big cycle for Bitcoin is coming soon, and I firmly believe that. However, the end of a bear market is the hardest and one of the most dangerous phases. Many people think Bitcoin has bottomed out at $60K and keep buying the dip. But according to the conclusion of my three-dimensional trading system analysis: The end of the Bitcoin bear market still has one last drop to go! Maybe my judgment is wrong! I hope I'm wrong! But we can't let that make us complacent! Risk management comes first—caution is the key to long-term survival! #Bitcoin #BTC #比特币 #MrXiaolongToday