mignolet
mignolet|Aug 15, 2026 00:23
In my view, these datasets provide a very important signal for understanding the current market. "Supply in Loss" is currently at historically high levels. However, the actual loss stress experienced by investors remains relatively low compared with previous cycles. In other words, how much Bitcoin is in loss and how severe those losses actually are are two very different things. For example, the stress experienced by someone with a $1 unrealized loss is completely different from that of someone with a $10,000 unrealized loss. Yet "Supply in Loss" classifies both positions exactly the same as supply in loss. I see this phenomenon as another structural effect of the changes in trading and settlement patterns following spot ETF approval. And I don't think this should be overlooked. Historically, major market bottoms have formed when "ULSR" reached around the 45% level, and this pattern appears remarkably clear and consistent across previous cycles. From my perspective, when it comes to measuring the degree of loss stress around major market bottoms, the historical pattern in ULSR actually appears even clearer than MVRV.(mignolet)
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