degentrading|Aug 14, 2026 08:31
Pre Market Thoughts - 14 Aug 26
Yesterday's SNDK investor day sparked a huge rebound across memory. Collectively, the entire investor crowd remembered that SNDK and the rest of the memory companies have enough cash and are committed to buying back stock. SNDK expects to collect about 94B in value from 8 clients and expects to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders.
It is deeply ironic that memory rebounded just as some of the loudest voice on fintwit turned bearish. Always remember, there is a reason why they separate an analyst role from a trading role.
At this point, let me highlight that I was one of the earliest and the few people on FinX to identify that the next buyers for memory would be the companies themselves conducting buybacks and patient capital. I also correctly identified the shape of the recovery.
More importantly, i have been harping that compute is in a structural shortage and that the next leader of the rally will be by neoclouds. Both my predictions are turning true - from this you would know that i am not a perma memory bull. My conclusions are just drawn from the facts i see.
I am not a fortune teller. You could have drawn all of these conclusions like me if you looked at the data that i am providing for free on http://terminal.gambit.zone. There, you will find compute rental data, memory data. Option prints. Implied earnings moves.
Why do i continuously harp for people to do their own due diligence? Because borrowed conviction is weak. Also, i could be wrong. It is far more important to educate yourself. Do not follow anyone blindly, me included. I have been wrong and will continue to make mistakes in my life. For those risking money in markets, the least you could do is to treat your money with care and duty.
My game plan remains to be doing nothing. The most important thing to do once you are in a good position is to sit tight. That is where the money is made.
On markets - one thing i want to flag is that onshore koreans are NOT buying the rally in memory. If anything, onshore is selling while offshore money is adding money. This reverses the trend that we saw in June where offshore money sold korean equities.
Another thing to note is that MU has a restriction on buying back stock that expires on 9 Dec 26 because of its commitments under the CHIPS act. Hence i would expect SNDK to continue outpacing MU. The emerging HBF product is also going to start getting priced into markets and adds an additional tailwind to SNDK.
On NBIS, the vineland stops were issued on 10 Aug - presumably this was the reason for the weakness into the Burry shorts. However, i am not at all concerned about it. Let me highlight again that NBIS has a 30% short interest. Set ups come by once in a while.
For my readers, i only have 1 ask. If you are involved in building out a neocloud, please reach out to me. My extended piece on Neoclouds will be out soon.
Good luck!(degentrading)
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