Any BTC bought in 2025 and held until now is at a loss. So, as long as the 2025 chips decrease, apart from wallet transfers, the rest are all panic selling. As of today, there are still 4.77 million BTC from 2025, down 41.5% from the peak in December last year. The downward trend has two distinct phases: before February, it dropped sharply; after February, the decline slowed but still maintained a certain slope. This group is likely the largest supply side in the current market. If we compare the data from 2024, 2023, and 2022, it’s easy to see that the chips still in profit have mostly passed the steep decline phase. And the longer the time, the smaller the slope. From the chart, the curve after February has almost flattened into a straight line. Even if the price drops further, the change in the number of these chips is minimal. In other words, those who wanted to sell have already sold, and the rest are holding firm. Looking at the past two bear markets: during the 2022 bear market bottom, the high-level chips from 2021 dropped by 51%; during the 2018 bear market bottom, the high-level chips from 2017 dropped by 62%. If we simply extrapolate, I personally think the bottom of this bear market will see at most a 50-60% drop (currently at 41%), and that’s not even considering the BTC bought by ETFs and MicroStrategy in 2025, most of which are locked and unmoving.