Overview of Core Events in Global Financial Markets August 14, 2026 (Friday) PPI data has also been released, and inflation concerns have been confirmed to cool down. Today, the market enters its last trading day of the week: retail sales data will verify whether the consumer side is still strong. 1. Yesterday's review PPI data confirms cooling inflation Last night, the July PPI in the United States was 4.7% year-on-year (previously 5.5%), unchanged from the previous period, both lower than market expectations. The core PPI increased by only 0.2% compared to the previous period, up 4.2% year-on-year. Combined with Wednesday's CPI data, both inflation reports point to the same conclusion: a moderate inflation pattern has been confirmed. In terms of market response, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has decreased from about 50% to about 35%, the 10-year yield on US Treasury bonds has fallen to around 4.66%, the US dollar index has slightly declined, and risk appetite has moderately recovered. In terms of US stocks, the S&P 500 hit a historic high of 7816 points during trading, closing up 0.60% at 7794.77 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.80% to 26801.95 points. Last night, the semiconductor sector rebounded particularly strongly, with MU up nearly 5%, SNDK up about 4.4%, and CoreWeave up 19%. There are three driving factors behind it: (1) Performance verification: CoreWeave's financial report shows a year-on-year revenue growth of 112% in the second quarter, with backlog orders exceeding 104 billion US dollars, and strong demand for AI computing power; (2) Supply and demand prediction: Micron executives stated at an industry forum that the supply and demand pattern for storage chips in 2027 will be even tighter than in 2026, and it is currently impossible to determine when supply will match demand; (3) Valuation repair: Previously, the storage chip sector experienced a significant pullback from its high point at the end of June, and after oversold, funds borrowed CPI/PPI to double confirm the window for inflation cooling and entered the market to replenish. European stocks closed slightly lower due to resource stocks (Rio Tinto -2.8%), while Stoxx 600 fell 0.04%. 2. Today's core focus Retail sales data is the last piece of the puzzle for this week At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the retail sales data for July in the United States will be released. This is the final battle of this week's "CPI+PPI+Retail Sales" data three piece set. The core issue that the market is concerned about is whether American consumers are still spending money in a high interest rate environment? Consumer resilience is directly related to GDP expectations and also affects whether hawks within the Federal Reserve have the confidence to continue advocating for interest rate hikes. If retail data is strong, the market may interpret it as a "soft landing" narrative reinforcement; If the data is weak, it may further consolidate the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is bullish for BTC in the medium term. 3. Focus on events today ️ 20:30 Beijing Time | Monthly Retail Sales Rate for July in the United States The market expects a month on month growth of 0.3%, compared to the previous value of 0.2%. Excluding automobiles, core retail sales are expected to grow by 0.2%. Eurozone Q2 GDP correction value (17:00 Beijing time): The market is paying attention to the strength of the Eurozone economic recovery, and a downward revision in GDP may strengthen expectations of a global economic slowdown. Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (22:00 Beijing time): Form a dual verification with retail sales data on the consumer side, while paying attention to the sub item data of inflation expectations. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains deadlocked There has been no substantial progress in the US Iran negotiations, and Iranian officials have strongly stated that unless the US accepts Iran's conditions, the strait will continue to be blocked. Trump claims that the United States has "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz, but actual shipping data and satellite imagery show that Iran's main export port is almost stagnant, and the two sides are in a stalemate of "no war, no peace". According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global daily supply gap reached 1.8 million barrels in the third quarter due to the continued obstruction of the strait. However, the three major energy agencies have simultaneously lowered their demand expectations, coupled with an unexpected surge in US crude oil inventories of 17.42 million barrels last week, limiting the upward potential of oil prices. WTI is currently in a tug of war around $83 per barrel. 4. Overnight market performance US stock market: Most of the three major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.60% to 7794.77 points, approaching a historical high, the Nasdaq rising 0.80%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly falling 0.05%. The AI sector continues to be strong, with CoreWeave and Nebius continuing to be sought after by the market. The US dollar index: reported around 99.8, with slight fluctuations after the release of inflation data. Gold: reported around $4425 per ounce, supported by moderate inflation and falling expectations of interest rate hikes, but the ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran limits further release of safe haven demand. Bitcoin: Reported around 63450, CPI and PPI double confirmed mild inflation failed to effectively boost BTC. The correlation with gold has shifted from -0.9 at the beginning of the year to+0.7, and is returning to the positioning of "digital gold". However, BTC is still constrained by the range of 62000-66000, and its volume can continue to be low. 5. Pay attention to the schedule today ⏰ 17: 00 | Eurozone Q2 GDP correction value ⏰ 20: 30 | US July Retail Sales Monthly Rate (Week End Data) ⏰ 22:00 | Initial Consumer Confidence Index of University of Michigan in August, USA ⏰ TBD | Financial reports of JD.com, Applied Materials, etc 6. Summary of this section This Wednesday's big economic data: CPI and PPI have both confirmed a moderate inflation pattern, and tonight's retail sales data will reveal whether consumers are still strong. BTC is still stuck in the range of 62000-66000, and the easing of inflation pressure is a macro positive, but the stock pattern of 'no new money, no new direction' remains unchanged. Retail sales are the last piece of the puzzle this week, and after the data is released, the market will enter a vacuum period waiting for the August employment report. Inflation is confirmed to have cooled down, but incremental funds have not yet arrived, which is the real contradiction of BTC.