This is basically like the USD/CNY exchange rate returning to 7. If this happens within a year, I think there are at least a few key factors at play: 1. The Fed raises interest rates again. Ideally, another 25 or 50 basis points hike, or at least creating market expectations for maintaining high interest rates long-term. This would increase the yield on dollar assets, making it easier for the dollar index to strengthen again. 2. China continues cutting rates or further easing. If the U.S. maintains high interest rates while China keeps cutting rates or lowering reserve requirements to boost economic growth, the interest rate gap between the two countries would widen again, reducing the attractiveness of RMB assets compared to USD assets. 3. China's economy faces more noticeable pressure. For example, further deterioration in the real estate sector, weak domestic demand, declining corporate profits, or foreign capital reducing allocations to Chinese assets. A stronger dollar alone might not be enough—if there’s no depreciation pressure on the RMB itself, it won’t be easy to return to 7. 4. China's trade surplus starts to decline. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for a long time, leading to high oil, natural gas, and shipping costs, China—as a major energy importer—would need more dollars to purchase the same amount of energy. With rising import costs, even if exports don’t drop significantly, the trade surplus could shrink, weakening support for the RMB. 5. Increased demand for dollars. If businesses start reducing foreign exchange settlements and increasing dollar deposits, residents and institutions ramp up overseas asset allocations, and foreign capital begins exiting the Chinese market, the depreciation pressure on the RMB would intensify further. In simple terms, the dollar needs to get stronger again, while the RMB needs to weaken again. Only if both happen simultaneously can the exchange rate realistically return to 7.