Bitcoin might have already bottomed out: Even Strategy selling BTC and the CLARITY Act probability dropping to 15% couldn’t shake the market? Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: When a bear market is truly nearing its end, bad news starts losing its impact. Over the past few months, this seems to be happening. Strategy rarely sells BTC, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has dropped from a high point to around 15%, yet Bitcoin hasn’t followed the bearish news to hit new lows. In the middle of a bear market, the market amplifies bearish news and ignores bullish news. By the later stages, most of the sellers have already sold, and new bad news struggles to find enough incremental selling pressure. Hougan believes we might now be entering the opposite phase: The market is ignoring bad news and could start amplifying bullish news. If this judgment is correct, what’s needed next is a batch of new marginal buyers. He thinks this money will come from large wealth management platforms, which could be even more significant than retail investors FOMO-ing back in. Morgan Stanley has already officially included crypto assets in its asset allocation framework, suggesting a maximum allocation of about 2%–4% for various growth-oriented portfolios. Hougan recently attended a major wealth management conference, where advisors were discussing the same 2%–4% allocation. The characteristic of this type of capital is that it moves slowly but is extremely sticky. In past Bitcoin bull markets, the growth was driven more by retail investors, exchanges, and institutional active funds chasing the rally. In the next cycle, if wealth advisors start including BTC/crypto ETFs in standard portfolios, it could create a steady demand for asset allocation and rebalancing.