Art of Speculation|8月 13, 2026 03:11
US stocks continue to fluctuate at high levels
SPX has been locked in the narrow range of 7700-7800 recently, while SPY corresponds to approximately 767-776. The GEX options are highly concentrated in this region, with positive Gamma continuously compressing volatility, so the index seems to be stagnant and unable to fall recently. This is essentially a Trap Zone, and I will temporarily remain neutral and not bet on direction in the middle of the zone. Breaking above 776 is the confirmation of a new round of upward movement, while falling below 767 is the first thing to look at 760-756 and the daily EMA21.
QQ is also consolidating at a high level, with obvious pressure around 726. Although the medium-term bullish structure will not be disrupted as long as it continues to stand above the daily EMA 21, the current position is far from support and not suitable for chasing high. If the subsequent VIX rebound brings a normal retracement, the area around the daily EMA 21 is my preferred long zone.
The biggest short-term risk now comes from VIX. VIX has fallen to around 14.4, in the low range of the past two years, and there is not much room for further downward pressure. In history, there has often been a volatility mean reversal in this position, so I wouldn't be surprised to see VIX retrace towards 18-20 in the short term. If it really happens, it may not necessarily be a bad thing for the index. What SPX/QQQ lacks now is a healthy reset. VIX rises, the index retraces to EMA21, panic is released, and then we look for opportunities to go long. I think it's more comfortable than directly chasing high levels now.
IWM follows a similar logic, currently fluctuating within a narrow range of 300-305, and a low volatility environment is more suitable for selling premium.
NVDA is currently strong, but short-term risks/rewards are not as comfortable as before. After the stock price rebound, it is relatively far away from EMA 21, and the financial report is getting closer and closer. I don't think it's necessary to tinker with long-term positions due to short-term fluctuations, but I will start considering gradually locking in profits before the financial report for swing trade, and I'm not willing to continue chasing at this position. If it continues to rise before the financial report, expectations will become increasingly full. After the financial report, sell the news. If VIX cooperates with the rebound and returns to the vicinity of 214 or the daily EMA21, this is a position that I am more interested in rebounding.
TSLA is starting to have some disagreements in the short term. The daily momentum has weakened, and if it falls below the recent low and continues to press below EMA 21, it is necessary to guard against a short-term topping structure. But the bottom structure of the weekly chart is actually not that bad, so I won't directly turn into a medium-term bearish. The option GEX is still bullish. Let's first look at 342-350, and if this area breaks through, then look at the gap around 372. Fundamentally, 2026 itself is Tesla's CapEx year, AI infrastructure、 Data centers, Optimus, and energy storage are all burning money, so now we are trading short-term profits for future AI/robot options. Looking at the technical aspect in the short term, it still depends on whether Optimus and AI investments can ultimately be converted into income in the medium to long term.
META is currently one of my favorites among large tech stocks. The front 500-550 has already formed a relatively solid double bottom, and now GEX has turned positive again. Above 750 and 800, there is a clear accumulation of Call and Gamma exposure. The biggest concern in the market before was that AI CapEx was too high, but the latest financial report only raised the lower limit of CapEx guidance from 125B to 130B and maintained the upper limit at 145B, without the market's most feared uncontrolled upward revision. Zuckerberg is now betting that WhatsApp, Instagram, and personal agents in the entire social ecosystem can convert these AI CapEx into future revenue. In the short term, the market may still question ROI, but the strong rebound of the stock price after the financial report indicates that many CapEx are panicking about price in. As long as the large structure of 500-550 is not broken, we still need to look for opportunities to go long at a low level.
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