Six Dimensional Trading System of US Stocks | Today's One Stock ----SPCX: With the bearish market entering the second half, can we continue to rebound to higher prices? We will first use the six dimensional trading system of the US stock market to conduct a six dimensional analysis of the situation of this stock. 1. STS Six Dimensional Analysis and Judgment One by One Dimension 1: Market Expectations and Consensus (+1, biased towards excess) After the lifting of the ban, the attitude of the institution has loosened. Citigroup maintains a target price of $200 and raises its financial forecasts for 2026 and 2027, expecting the company's revenue to reach approximately $1 trillion by 2031. Argus has upgraded its rating from 'hold' to 'buy' and set a target price of $160, believing that strong growth momentum and excellent operational performance are the core logic. But it is not unanimously bullish. Although Macquarie maintains a target price of $250, it emphasizes that "continuous increase in operational leverage" and "the speed of burning money must be slowed down" are key prerequisites. There are obvious differences in market consensus. Conclusion: Excessive. Dimension 2: Quantity price and technical aspect (-1, bearish) From the historical high of 225.64 to the low of 104.83, measured by Fibonacci retracement: (1) 0.236 retracement position: approximately 133.35; (2) 0.382 drawdown level: approximately 151.00; (3) 0.5 retracement position: approximately 165.24; (4) 0.618 retracement position: approximately 179.47; As shown in the Fibonacci retracement chart of the price below, 146 is approaching the 0.382 gravity level (151), which is the first strong resistance. On August 10th, the stock price closed at 138.74, rebounding continuously above the issue price of 135, but 145-150 was confirmed by market consensus as the primary pressure zone. The position of 148-150 at 0.618 is a strong pressure level, and if it cannot be effectively broken through, it is likely to be blocked and fall back. In terms of volume and energy structure, the trading volume has significantly decreased from its peak recently, but it has increased compared to the trading volume of previous days. On the day of the lifting of the ban, over 250 million shares were traded, indicating strong institutional buying, but the volume has gradually declined since then. Volume contraction and price increase are typical characteristics of short selling in the tail section. Without a sustained relay of large funds, it is easy to fall off after a surge. Conclusion: It is biased towards emptiness. Dimension 3: Actual performance and operational quality (+1, biased towards excess) Q2 revenue exceeded expectations by $7.81 billion, but capital expenditures increased by $18.37 billion, a year-on-year surge of 550%. Citigroup analysts stated that their confidence in the management's vision is higher than market consensus, but high expenses are difficult to translate into profits in the short term. Conclusion: Excessive, but the speed of burning money is the biggest hidden danger. Dimension ④: Management signals and forward guidance (-1, bearish) On August 6th, the first batch of 911 million shares were unlocked and digested by the market, but the unlocking is a continuous event: about 319 million shares (about 7% of the shares) on August 20th, about 700 million shares in September, and about 700 million shares in October, which will continue until 2027. The entire unlocking process adopts a nine stage phased mechanism, and the lock up period for Musk and some specific shareholders is extended until June next year. The chips are still being released continuously, which is the real test. Conclusion: It is biased towards emptiness. Dimension ⑤: News Emotions and Narrative Drivers (+1, biased towards more) On the day of lifting the ban, the price increased by 6%, and the next day it was extended for two more days, totaling 23%. Short covering is the core driving force, with the short selling ratio plummeting from 36% to 16%. Currently, there are still over 250 million shares being short sold. Short covering has not yet ended, and if the stock price continues to rise, there may still be a short squeeze effect. Conclusion: Excessive. Dimension ⑥: Macroeconomics and Liquidity (0, neutral) The macro environment is neutral. The supply shock brought about by the lifting of restrictions is an independent liquidity pressure. The biggest short-term uncertainty is how the market will digest supply expectations before the second batch of lifting restrictions on August 20th. Conclusion: Neutral. The comprehensive judgment of STS is as follows: (1) Multidimensional approach: expectations, performance, and emotions; (2) Short selling dimensions: quantity price, management level 2; (3) Neutral dimension: 1 macro dimension; 2. Comprehensive judgment conclusion SPCX (146): The distribution of 6 dimensions is 3 long positions, 2 short positions, and 1 neutral position, indicating a cautious neutral bias in the overall signal. The key to the next week is whether the resistance of 145-150 can be broken through, and how the market will digest supply expectations before the second wave of lifting restrictions (August 20th). 3. Three types of path deduction for the next week Path 1 (benchmark, probability 50%): The 145-150 interval is blocked, and the retracement is 133-138. 150 is the superposition of 0.382 gravitational potential and technical pressure zone, and the expected lifting is still fermenting. If there is a contraction and stagflation at 146-150, it is highly likely to retrace to the 133-135 issue price support. Holding on to 133 is still a healthy pullback, and there is a chance to attack 150 again in the future. Path 2 (optimistic, probability 25%): Break through 150 with high volume and challenge 165-172. If the bulls continue to increase their volume and push for a short position, after breaking through 150, look at 160-165. But it requires continuous quantity coordination. Once the quantity is reduced, there is a high probability of failure to break through. Path three (pessimistic, probability 25%): Below 133, accelerating to 115-125. If the concerns about lifting the ban continue to ferment, 135 may fall to 125-130 or even 115-120 after its fall. 4. Trading Strategy Reference Short selling strategy: The 145-150 range is the observation window. If there is a high volume stagnation or a long upper shadow line, you can take a light short position, stop loss 155, and target 135-133. Long strategy: At this price point, it is not recommended to chase too many as the profit and loss ratio is relatively poor. There are already positions available for profit taking in batches. Waiting for the pullback of the empty position to stabilize at 133-135 before considering intervention. SPCX SpaceX unlocks its six dimensional trading system for stocks