July CPI is overall positive. U.S. July CPI year-over-year dropped to 3.4%, core CPI year-over-year at 2.5%, showing inflation continues to cool down. Coupled with the previous surprising non-farm payroll data, the Fed has even fewer reasons to raise rates in September—good news for U.S. stocks, $BTC, and gold. But don’t relax just yet. The focus is now shifting from CPI to crude oil. This round of Brent crude approaching $90 mainly happened after late July, so its impact on July inflation is limited. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and oil prices stay high, the pressure will gradually show up in future inflation data. Let’s see if crude oil plays nice.