TraderS | 缺德道人|Aug 12, 2026 09:46
The July CPI data is set to be released at 8:30 PM tonight. Unlike last month, when oil prices kept dropping, this time during the statistical period, oil prices first fell and then rose. However, the bulk of the oil price rebound will be reflected in August's CPI, so this time it's highly likely to align with expectations and remain stable.
As of August 10th, the Cleveland Fed's forecast is: July CPI month-on-month +0.09%, core CPI +0.21%, with year-on-year figures at 3.42% and 2.52%, respectively—basically in line with market expectations.
After the data is released, the first thing we need to check is whether the core CPI monthly rate exceeds 0.3%, because June's core month-on-month figure of 0.0% was an anomaly, and July carries the risk of a rebound.
If the final CPI figures meet expectations and remain stable, the impact on U.S. stocks will be minimal, and individual stocks will continue to follow their original trajectories.
However, keep in mind that June's total CPI of -0.4% and core CPI of 0.0% were extremely unusual. There's no way this month's data will be better than last month's. If this point is used to manipulate public opinion and trigger a market sell-off, it would be a false bearish signal—an opportunity to buy the dip.
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