Serenity: Multiple optical communication companies' financial reports confirm supply bottleneck of CW lasers, with high barriers to entry for first generation CPO related lasers BlockBeats News: On August 12th, Serenity announced that recent financial reports from multiple optical communication companies have further confirmed its assessment of the supply bottleneck for continuous wave (CW) DFB lasers. Lumentum (LITE) stated that there is an unexpected demand and supply-demand imbalance for ultra-high power CW lasers, and the company has the ability to increase the average selling price of lasers; At the same time, it is confirmed that the expansion of CPO production is still progressing according to plan, and it is expected to start shipping in the second half of 2027. Rumors about the delay in CPO expansion are considered "noise". Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) stated that due to the strong demand for optical transceivers, the company's current CW laser production capacity is insufficient, and that lasers are one of the bottlenecks in the 20% to 40% supply and demand gap of optical transceivers. Customers are requesting to increase supply and accelerate delivery every week. AAOI is currently not substantially involved in the deployment of the first generation CPO; Serenity also stated that MACOM (MTSI) is currently more focused on NPO, and MTSI has stated that due to the overall tight supply of indium phosphide DFB lasers, many customers are seeking supply with a strong sense of urgency. In terms of competitive landscape, Serenity cited the management of AAOI and Lumentum, stating that Chinese manufacturers are still significantly lagging behind in the CPO laser field. AAOI stated that it is lagging behind by about 2 to 3 years, while Lumentum stated that it has not yet seen Chinese manufacturers achieve qualified production capacity and output levels that match their public claims. Serenity believes that there are still high barriers to entry for the first generation CPO related lasers, and the market has not seen a large influx of supply as some short selling views claim. Serenity stated that its previous judgments regarding the supply bottleneck of CW lasers and the limited number of suppliers for the first generation CPO lasers have been further validated by recent financial reports. He specifically mentioned Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE), believing that its market value of approximately $1.5 billion is still relatively small compared to CPO related companies such as Coherent, Lumentum, and Broadcom, and that it is mainly waiting for the business turning point brought by the next generation of optical communication architecture switching. [Original link]