DC大于C|Aug 12, 2026 04:57
Tell me about the recent position operation WTI SPCX
According to the logical path: oil price - inflation - interest rate expectations - impact on risk markets
Come on
Firstly, let's talk about the geopolitical impact on oil prices between the US and Iran. Although it is close to $84, the news that the US and Iran are close to reaching some kind of arrangement indicates that there is still a condition swap. As long as there is no further escalation, it will not stimulate an increase in oil prices
But the patience of the market is also limited. Let's see if there are specific arrangements in the next few days
I personally don't think it will continue to rise, so it shouldn't be very high. So still holding a short oil price order is a result of aggressive user trading, leading to unfriendly rates, which is quite distressing.
If this wave can continue to decline, around 75, it will completely flatten out at the right time.
Another thing is tonight's CPI data. The current expected value is still good. If inflation continues to weaken, it will definitely dispel the expectation of future interest rate hikes and may increase the expectation of interest rate cuts in Q4
This is beneficial for the US stock market and the market. So I'm still holding my SPCX and waiting tonight to see if I can leverage CPI's good data and have a chance to break through 140. Then I'm ready to leave completely.
The market is waiting for tonight's direction to be decided. As of now, the expected interest rate hike in September is about 50%
Of course, if CPI experiences a major drop or even geopolitical escalation, oil prices will rebound
That's another story
I hope to move in the direction of good expectations.
DYOR
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