Tonight at 8:30 PM, US CPI: Could Bitcoin break out of its comfort zone of sideways trading? Bitcoin has entered a very typical 'waiting for news' phase: The price has been stuck in a range for a long time, liquidity is weak, implied volatility in the derivatives market keeps dropping, and neither bulls nor bears are willing to place heavy bets in advance. So the key for tonight’s CPI might not be whether it goes up or down, but whether it increases Bitcoin’s volatility. If inflation is lower than expected, rate cut expectations will heat up, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will face pressure, and $BTC will be more likely to break upward. If inflation is higher than expected, the market will reprice for higher interest rates, and $BTC might break downward. The longer the sideways trading lasts, the faster the market could move once the price truly leaves the current range. If the CPI still doesn’t provide a clear direction, the market might continue to grind until September, when expectations around Fed policy and the progress of the CLARITY Act could become new catalysts. Here’s one not-so-friendly historical trend: September has long been one of Bitcoin’s worst-performing months, with an average historical return of about -4%.