HTX DeepThink: In addition to policy interest rates, long-term returns are becoming a key constraint for Crypto valuation BlockBeats News: On August 11th, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the core contradiction in the current macro market has shifted from "when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates" to "whether the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates again". Warsh attempted to reduce the impact of monthly data on policy, but due to its policy framework not being fully understood by the market, inflation data for July and August became key variables determining September policy expectations. If the core CPI remains at 0.2% or below, the market will resume trading, inflation will fall back, and policies will be suspended; If it continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve will face a choice between raising interest rates or losing credibility. For risk assets, the real concern is not only the federal funds rate, but also the long-term US bond yield. The "short-term decline and long-term rise" that emerged after the July meeting means that the market is beginning to take into account higher long-term inflation risks and the Fed's credit premium. If the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds continues to rise, even if the Federal Reserve remains inactive, financial conditions will naturally tighten, and technology stocks and cryptocurrencies with high valuations and dependence on liquidity will be suppressed. For Crypto, the next month is more likely to be high volatility rather than a one-sided market trend. If CPI remains moderate, US Treasury yields fall, and the US dollar weakens, BTC may benefit first and drive the rebound of high beta altcoins; If inflation accelerates again, the market will reprice the probability of a September interest rate hike, and long-term interest rates may break through again. Crypto is prone to deleveraging and rapid downturns. Therefore, the current focus is not on betting in advance on whether to raise interest rates or not, but on the evolution of three sets of signals: whether the core CPI and PCE continue to rebound, whether the 30-year US Treasury yield breaks through previous highs, and whether BTC can maintain relative strength under macroeconomic bearish conditions. If inflation remains high and BTC does not fall, it indicates that internal funds in Crypto are forming an independent trend; On the contrary, if the yield rises while BTC falls below key support, we need to be alert to the possibility of a new round of liquidity contraction. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.