gm365|Aug 10, 2026 10:19
Backtested two so-called "internal market strategies," and the results showed negative returns.
Saw someone share two internal market strategies—one claimed you could make some hard-earned money, and the other said it was "easy to get a piece of the action."
So I had Codex run a backtest using a massive dataset: approximately 8.81 million valid trades.
The backtest results for both strategies? All negative returns.
In other words, if you strictly follow the conditions for buying, and stick to the fixed conditions for take-profit and stop-loss, the backtest suggests you'll end up losing money.
Of course, you could argue that the dataset itself has issues or that the current market conditions are different.
You could also say there are factors that can't be included in the backtest, like "taste" or "intuition."
For example, does a meme make you feel like buying, or does your gut tell you it's not reliable?
But as far as I'm concerned, I trust the conclusions drawn from the data more.
Making money off memes comes with two key points to keep in mind:
1. This is a super fat-tail market—a single big win can make up for all past losses.
2. Because of point one, this is also a market with severe survivorship bias.
That's why you'll see all kinds of enticing profit screenshots on Twitter, but rarely hear people complaining about their losses.
Of course, I'm not denying that some people can consistently make money off memes, even big money. But for most ordinary folks, this is basically a negative EV game.
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