BitUnix analyst: Non farm shock combined with US and Chinese intervention, global assets are once again facing the constraint of 'high cost of capital'

On August 10th, the non farm payroll in the United States unexpectedly decreased by 23000 people in July, marking the first negative growth since February this year. Although the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%, the combined non farm payroll data for May and June has been significantly revised downwards, indicating that the resilience of the US job market is weakening. This makes the Federal Reserve's policy trade-off between inflation and employment more complex, especially with the widening divergence among officials over interest rate hikes in recent times. The risk premium of monetary policy will still be reflected in US bond yields and US dollar asset valuations. At the same time, the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's July meeting released stronger signals of interest rate hikes, and some members believe that a more flexible and even more proactive approach to policy normalization should be taken. The weak yen has prompted rare joint currency market interventions between Japan and the United States, indicating that exchange rate issues are no longer just a monetary policy issue for Japan itself, but are gradually affecting US bond holdings, US dollar liquidity, and global arbitrage trading structures. If the expectation of further interest rate hikes in Japan continues to rise, the cost of yen arbitrage funds may also increase, which may exacerbate the volatility of overvalued and highly leveraged assets. The US Treasury is in another critical position. Besant's recent support for yen intervention, discussion of FIMA liquidity instruments and adjustment of the statement on the issuance of long-term treasury bond bonds essentially point to reducing the pressure on the long-term US bond market. However, in an environment where fiscal deficits, inflation, and energy costs remain high, the support that the Treasury Department can provide is limited. The true determinants of long-term returns are still the inflation path, Federal Reserve policies, and market pricing of US fiscal sustainability. The industrial sector presents a completely different picture. SpaceX, AI servers, HBM, and NAND demand are still in high demand, and enterprise capital expenditures continue to expand. However, the stock prices of SanDisk and Western Digital have plummeted after their financial reports, reflecting that the problem is no longer just whether the performance has grown, but whether the enterprise can continue to exceed already high market expectations. The core contradiction of the AI industry is continuously shifting towards capital efficiency and valuation affordability. Therefore, what the market really needs to observe this week is not a single data, but whether the cooling of employment can offset the pressure of inflation and fiscal factors on long-term interest rates, and whether AI high capital expenditures can continue to be converted into enough cash flow to support high valuations. The US July CPI released on Wednesday will be an important validation. If inflation remains sticky, non farm weakness may not be sufficient to bring sustained downward space for interest rates; On the contrary, if inflation and employment cool down simultaneously, the pressure of high interest rates on global risk assets will have a chance to be substantially alleviated. Overall, global assets are still in an environment of high fiscal demand, high capital expenditure, and high cost of funds, and volatility and asset differentiation are expected to remain high. (BlockBeats)