Looking at the SOPR indicator, bitcoin:native hasn’t reached the true cycle bottom yet! Let’s start with the conclusion: The BTC cycle low might occur between October 4 and November 20, 2026, with a focus on late October. The core price range is $44,000 to $53,000, with the midpoint around $48,000. In the previous three BTC cycles, it took 410 days, 363 days, and 376 days respectively to drop from the cycle top to the final bottom, averaging about 383 days. This cycle’s top appeared on October 6, 2025. Based on historical cycles, the low point is roughly expected between October and November this year. LTH-SOPR is also worth keeping an eye on. When this indicator drops below 1, it means long-term holders are starting to sell at a loss. However, it doesn’t directly pinpoint the lowest price. What’s more important is whether LTH-SOPR stops deteriorating when the price hits new lows. If the price continues to drop but the selling pressure from old coins doesn’t increase, it indicates that selling pressure is weakening. Here’s my projection: - In September, BTC might test the $54,000 to $58,000 range. - Between October and November, it could enter the core bottom range of $44,000 to $53,000. - In extreme cases, it might dip to $38,000 to $42,000. After the low point appears, it will still take 3-5 months for sufficient turnover to kickstart a new trend! To truly leave the bottom behind, BTC needs to stabilize above $70,000 to $72,000 on the weekly chart, with the LTH-SOPR 7-day moving average staying above 1 for several consecutive weeks. So, the lowest price doesn’t mean the bear market ends immediately. The toughest phase is often when the price has already bottomed, but the market still struggles to find a new trend.