DC大于C
DC大于C|Aug 07, 2026 13:19
The unemployment rate data came in at 4.1, lower than the previous and forecasted values. Non-farm payrolls even turned negative. If inflation data also looks decent, this report really supports the expectation of rate cuts. But honestly, the impact isn’t huge. The market’s main focus is still on inflation. The good thing is that this data has eased rate hike expectations for this year. The probability of a rate hike in September has already dropped below 40%. Then there’s inflation, which ties back to oil prices. Today, WTI oil prices bounced back above $78, which got me a bit worried. But as of the time of writing, it’s already dropped below $77. It’s Friday today, so let’s see what happens over the weekend. At least for now, the potential for a price surge seems limited. As long as the U.S. and Iran don’t escalate things over the weekend, it should be fine. If they do escalate, oil prices will definitely rebound, and I’m torn about what to do with my short positions. But with the July CPI data coming out on 8/12 and the midterm elections getting closer, neither side has much time left. Let’s hope the downward trend continues and there are no unexpected surprises. Lastly, about SPCX. Yesterday, despite the unlocking event, the stock price managed to recover above $114. I canceled my $117 sell order again. Honestly, I’m just trying to see if there’s a chance to sell at a higher price. Even though it’s unlikely to quickly bounce back above $155, if it can push to $120 or even $130, at least I can recover some losses (lose a bit less). Right now, it’s around $115 pre-market. I’ll wait and see for a few more days. As long as it doesn’t hit new lows and can stabilize around $110, it’s fine. Also, if the U.S. and Iran don’t stir up trouble over the weekend, and next week sees quick progress in restarting negotiations about the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could drop further, and inflation expectations would decline. That would be a boost for U.S. stocks. At that point, SPCX might even rebound a bit more. But who knows if things will actually play out that way? Let’s take it one step at a time. DYOR.
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