Written before today's non-farm payroll data update Tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time is the release of the most important data this week: the U.S. July non-farm payroll report. Non-farm payroll data has always been a key focus during Powell's tenure, especially when inflation was fluctuating and the downward trend was very limited. At that time, non-farm data, particularly the unemployment rate, became a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve's decisions. But now, as we enter the Waller phase, it feels like neither Waller's stance nor the data reflected by non-farm payrolls is as significant anymore. One reason is the inflation spike caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict. Forget rate cuts—people are speculating about rate hikes every day. So, unless unemployment rises sharply to recession levels, there's almost no chance of rate cuts due to higher unemployment. On the other hand, the overall U.S. economic situation is still relatively stable. The market has almost stopped worrying about the U.S. entering a recession in 2026. Even if unemployment ticks up slightly, it will likely be explained away as jobs being "replaced by AI." Moreover, based on current market expectations, unemployment rates are still holding up reasonably well. As for non-farm employment data, it has been declining due to Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration, which the Fed is already aware of. So, if we see year-over-year growth, that's already a decent outcome. Personally, I think today's non-farm payroll data will have very limited impact on the market. Whether the data is good or bad, it will likely be treated as "bad" data overall. If the unemployment rate drops or remains unchanged, the Fed will definitely continue to focus on inflation, leaving no room for rate cuts. If unemployment rises, with inflation still this high, the probability of rate cuts remains very low, and there will still be concerns about a U.S. economic recession. So, no matter how you look at it, the data probably won't be great. The market seems to have toughened up by now. The key focus is on when the U.S.-Iran conflict will fully end, when the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen, whether oil prices can drop back below $70, and when inflation can come down. Everything else seems secondary at this point—anyway, AI is super impressive. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all in one place for trading.