Tonight's market focus should be on the July labor employment data. Let's take a look at a few sets of data: 1. If we look at the monthly increase in non farm employment data over the past four years together (as shown in the figure below), it is clear that the monthly increase in non farm employment has been steadily declining, with non farm employment below 100000 being relatively low after the pandemic. And it can be seen that the employment data for July and August in the past three years have not been very good. 2. New employment data for the second quarter At the beginning of July, here is https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2072665494768021550? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A It has been discussed that the non farm payroll of 57000 in June was much lower than expected, indicating that the "World Cup effect" in May will quickly fade away; A total of 74000 people were downgraded in April and May, but overall employment in the second quarter was not as good On Wednesday of this week, it was announced that the ADP for small non agriculture in July was significantly lower than expected, reaching a new low for the year, with the production sector experiencing the biggest decline. The unemployment rate has remained around 4.3%, due to a contraction in labor supply rather than an expansion in demand. It can be seen that the job market is actually cooling down, especially without the strong factor of the World Cup that promotes employment in the short term, non farm employment in July is unlikely to be very good. The focus is on: 1) If it is slightly lower than expected, employment will cool down moderately, wages will no longer be overheated, and the unemployment rate will not soar significantly, this is the best scenario for the market, which will shift the attention of the market and the Federal Reserve to the labor market, weaken the expectation of interest rate hikes, and not overly worry about recession; 2) If it is significantly lower than expected, it is a short-term panic and fear of recession. As announced in early August last year, the non farm payroll data for July was significantly weaker than expected, leading to a slight decline in the market. What left a deep impression on everyone was the announcement on August 3, 2024 that the non farm sector in July fell significantly short of expectations (expected 220000, data released 110000), coupled with the unexpected tightening of interest rates by the Japanese central bank at that time, which led to the peak of interest rate trading and the "8.5" flash crash. This week marks a crucial window for the US Japan joint intervention in the exchange rate Is Monday here https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2084156912954909063? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussed in detail This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'