Phyrex|8月 06, 2026 17:24
The most important macro data of this week is the non farm payroll data released on Friday. In fact, it is the most important and relative. In the past, when we paid attention to non farm payroll, we were concerned about the small changes in inflation. Powell was very worried about a recession in the US economy, so as long as the unemployment rate rose above the expected value of the Federal Reserve, there was a probability of interest rate cuts. However, now that inflation continues to rise, labor data is not so important for the time being, especially now that it is still before the historically low unemployment rate.
So personally, I don't think Friday's data will have a significant impact on the market. At most, it will be a short-term effect, and more importantly, it should be on inflation. Inflation still cannot bypass the war between the United States and Iran, and it seems that the full-scale war has stopped. However, the opening of Hormuz still only sees hope and has not been fully implemented. Of course, this has a lot to do with Iran's constant stirring up trouble.
In the early stages of the war between the United States and Iran, I thought that the United States was simply throwing stones at its own feet and initiating the war. However, by the time Iran tasted the sweetness of Hormuz, it began to turn public domain into private domain and became its own cash cow, which was disgusting. Many countries, although they didn't say it, actually supported the United States.
The oil issue is expected to continue for some time, and I am currently monitoring the situation. If we cannot continue to fight, the rebound in oil prices will be very limited. However, if we take action again, I should start by taking profits and talking about it day by day.
Recently, Bitcoin has been quite stable. Although it hasn't rebounded as strongly as the US stock market, compared to semiconductors, Bitcoin: native is already good. Currently, it is still maintaining the rhythm of buying at a low price of $63000 and selling at a high price of $66000, both due on Monday afternoon. Let's see if there is a chance.
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