**[Bitunix Analyst: Fed's Hawkish Signals Intensify, Dollar Credit and Global Capital Costs Reassessed Simultaneously]** BlockBeats News, August 6 – The U.S. added 44,000 jobs in July according to ADP employment data, indicating a continued cooling of the labor market. However, Federal Reserve officials have successively released hawkish statements. Kashkari, Cook, and Daly all emphasized that if inflation does not show sustained improvement, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. This has led the market to reassess the notion that economic slowdown does not necessarily mean an immediate shift to monetary easing. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would maintain its pace of bond buybacks and issuance, indicating that the market will still need to absorb a large supply of U.S. Treasury bonds in the short term. Long-term yields remaining elevated also suggest that financial conditions are tightening through market mechanisms. Currently, what truly impacts global asset valuations is not just whether the Federal Reserve raises rates, but also the government's massive financing needs, long-term interest rates, and market risk premiums collectively driving up global capital costs. On the geopolitical front, while Iran and Oman are close to reaching an agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the route is still under temporary arrangements, and full restoration of navigation depends on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. Even though the risk of supply disruptions has somewhat decreased, Iran's attempts to gain more control and revenue from the shipping lanes indicate that uncertainties in the global energy supply chain have not been resolved. Energy prices may still fluctuate due to policy changes and negotiation developments. From a market structure perspective, global capital is currently facing an environment of high capital costs, ongoing government financing, the expansion of AI infrastructure, and energy-related geopolitical risks. Capital allocation will increasingly prioritize capital efficiency and cash flow quality, while high-valuation and high-leverage assets will continue to face significant discounting pressures. In the cryptocurrency market, there was a net inflow of $475 million into ETFs over the past week and $922 million over the past month, indicating that short-term institutional funds are still replenishing risk assets. However, there has been a net outflow of $7.932 billion over the past quarter, reflecting that large-scale capital remains relatively conservative in its overall market allocation. This suggests that the market has not yet entered a phase of fully revived risk appetite but is instead continuing to seek a new balance in asset pricing amid global liquidity, long-term yields, and policy uncertainties. In the short term, Bitcoin will remain influenced by changes in dollar liquidity, global capital costs, and risk appetite. Whether ETF inflows can shift from short-term replenishment to a sustained trend will be a key indicator to watch in the market moving forward.