Circle (CRCL) Q2 financial report: The overall fundamentals have not changed much, and the self built public chain will be launched next month, starting to sell coins for profit Pre market gains are a combination of quantitative reading guidance, upward revision, and short covering ---------------- Total revenue, $701 million miss~5% (expected~$375 million); YoY growth rate, 20% → 7%, stagnant month on month Net profit, $48 million, MoM -13% (Q1 $55 million) USDC circulation, $73.3 billion, decreased by 4.8% month on month for the first time after listing ($77 billion at the end of Q1) Yield, 3.5%, YoY -66bps (due to interest rate cuts) ------------------- What do you think? The decrease in income growth rate is negative, but the recent decline is already considered pricing. Because the issuance of USDC can be seen on the chain, the shrinkage of USDC can also be seen. So the income in terms of interest has basically been calculated in advance, and the price has also been realized. For every 25bps interest rate cut in the United States, their annual income will decrease by 75 million (excluding Coinbase's share). The final approval of the OCC National Trust Bank license marks the first stablecoin issuer. Tether cannot be obtained in the short term. 3 Arc mainnet (their self built L1 public chain) was launched on 9/16, with a list of validators: BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard, ICE, Standard Chartered, Sumitomo SBI。 All are giants. So they raised their annual other income guidance from $150-170 million to $31-330 million. This includes pre-sale revenue of $160 million Arc coins. This token income has moisture. However, the upward adjustment of these keywords in the guidance has triggered some quantitative buying, which is also one of the reasons why the price surged before the release of the financial report. -------- The overall fundamentals have not changed much . The instant rise after the announcement should be a quantitative buy upon seeing the guidance increase, as well as some short covering after selling the news revenue decline and landing. The narrative of interest rate spreads is decreasing, unless a bull market comes and USDC reserves rise. Otherwise, if they continue to cut interest rates in the future, their interest income will be a clear sign. The main narrative for the future will still be the gas of the Arc mainnet Transitioning from interest rate differential companies to chain+payment network platforms . The amount of revenue that the main network can bring is still unknown, so CRCL Q3-Q4 is the key. Check if the Arc mainnet goes live smoothly.