BitUnix analyst: Behind the record high of risky assets, what truly supports the market is policy credit rather than optimistic sentiment According to BlockBeats, on August 5th, the global market continued the strong performance of risk assets, but the real driving force behind the flow of funds is no longer simply corporate financial reports or AI themes, but the reassessment of institutional credibility and policy execution by governments around the world after synchronized intervention in energy, exchange rates, supply chains, and monetary policies. AI capital expenditure remains the most important growth engine in the market. Anthropic and Volta Infra have signed a computing service agreement worth up to $10 billion, and Samsung has launched a new generation V10 V-NAND, significantly increasing storage density, once again proving that AI infrastructure is still in a high-speed expansion stage. The continued willingness of market funds to pay premiums for computing power, storage, and semiconductor supply chains also represents that companies are still willing to bear higher capital costs in exchange for future competitive advantages. However, Federal Reserve officials have simultaneously released more hawkish signals, believing that the current interest rate levels are still insufficient to effectively suppress inflation, resulting in a coexistence pattern of AI investment and high interest rate environment. In the future, the market will pay more attention to whether companies have sufficient cash flow and profitability to support massive capital expenditures, rather than relying solely on valuation expansion to drive stock prices up. Another noteworthy change comes from the energy market. The negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz have made substantial progress, and the outline of the US Iran agreement is gradually emerging. Discussions have even begun on European participation in mine clearance and the establishment of a joint maintenance mechanism, indicating that all parties have gradually entered the negotiation stage of shipping order and energy governance from military confrontation. If the Strait resumes normal navigation in the future, even with increased maintenance costs, it will be far lower than the supply risk brought by war, and the risk premium in the energy market is expected to continue to decline. At the same time, the US government is considering extending the exemption from the Jones Act and further using administrative tools to lower domestic energy costs, which reflects that energy prices are no longer just an economic issue, but also directly affect political support and policy stability. In addition, the Bank of Japan has not yet intervened in the foreign exchange market, but US Treasury Secretary Vincent publicly stated that necessary measures will be taken to support the yen, indicating that the exchange rate is gradually becoming a part of policy tools rather than being fully priced by the market. On the other hand, the continuous research by the United States on expanding the scope of metal tariffs also indicates that supply chain protection policies will continue, and global manufacturing costs and inflationary pressures are still difficult to completely ease in the short term. Although Michael Burry once again warned that the market may repeat the 1987 style crash, his viewpoint is more based on the structural risks formed by market leverage and volatility compression, rather than the deterioration of fundamentals. It is worth noting that while the US stock market hit a new high, the VIX also rose synchronously, indicating that the market has not completely ignored potential risks, but is jointly driving asset prices up through options hedging and leveraged trading. This structure means that as long as AI capital expenditures, corporate profits, and policy credit can still be maintained, the market still has an upward foundation; But if inflation rises again, the Federal Reserve tightens policy further, or the Hormuz negotiations are blocked again, overvalued technology stocks and high leverage strategies will become the main sources of volatility re expansion. In the short term, the market's focus will be on whether the Strait of Hormuz agreement has been officially implemented, the latest statements from Federal Reserve officials on the interest rate path, and whether AI infrastructure investment continues to accelerate. These three main lines will jointly determine the new balance between global capital costs, energy prices, and technology valuations, and will also become the core basis for pricing risk assets in the future.