BTC Long - and Short Term Holder Cost Data Update: Cross over Far Away? Continuing the quote below, today we will update you on the latest data of the 'Deep Bear Bottom Hunting Series'. Last week, I reported to you on the 'Long and Short Term Cost Reversal Signals for Holders', After a week, with the passage of time, some signs of "turning" seem to be emerging. Let's start with the conclusion ： STH-RP is steadily declining; LTH-RP has stopped rising ⏳ // The concept of indicators in the attached figure is as follows: ➡️ Blue line（ ）= STH-RP (Short Term Holder Average Cost) ➡️ Green Line（ ）= LTH-RP (Long Term Holder Average Cost) ➡️ Signal=STH-RP<LTH-RP As shown in the attached figure, the latest data is as follows: ➡️ LTH-RP（ ）= 48601, a decrease of approximately 349 points compared to two weeks ago ➡️ STH-RP（ ）= 68824, down about 507 points compared to two weeks ago The first two data updates are as follows (detailed principle attached): Updated on 07/29 https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2082338984362185024 Updated on 07/14 https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2076844585188520149 // Simply put: STH-RP has continued to decline at its own pace in the past month; But on average, LTH-RP has been 'declining' in the past three weeks, This indicates that since last week's update, some LTH groups are still distributing. The distribution of LTH is actually not easy to evaluate at this stage, According to past experience, 'LTH-RP distribution begins=start of bull market', Because compared to STH, the LTH population is considered relatively smart money, They will only start distributing after the 'bear market fundraising is completed' (starting in the early stages of the bull market). However, the core reason why it is difficult to evaluate is that: The unique feature of this cycle is the high position trapping a large number of chips 」。 Exploring the cyclical nature of BTC's gradual disappearance from the perspective of on chain data https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/1910515596497936757 I have talked about this topic with you many times before: A large number of chips trapped in high positions, since the bear market that began in October last year, In fact, it has shown strong resilience and a very low willingness to sell, This has led to these 'not very smart high-level buyers', over time, Forced to become a part of LTH and continue to push up LTH-RP. Old Dog Don't Panic, I Don't Panic ": Latest Data Tracking of Trapped Disk Above 100000 RMB https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2013428574179729645 In summary, it is not easy for us to directly evaluate the reasons for the decline in LTH-RP, Is it because 'smart LTHs are starting to distribute' or 'trapped LTHs are starting to cut meat'. However, both the former and the latter indirectly confirm one thing: We are really not far from the bottom of the bear market (spatially speaking). And if LTH-RP continues to decline, That means the bottom signal of 'STH-RP<LTH-RP' is unlikely to occur, If it is a friend who is eagerly waiting for this signal, Perhaps the signs that have appeared in the past three weeks require you to reassess the probability of triggering this signal. Path deduction of BTC's' three periodic bottom structures' https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2075529216591053204 Even though the current market has been fluctuating sideways for a long time, But this horizontal structure is one of the characteristics of "cyclical bottoming" (continuous turnover of chips); Moreover, even the 'flesh cutting' of those who are trapped in high positions can be seen as' surrender ', And 'massive surrender' is often one of the forward-looking signals of bottoming out (even if the current scale is not large). In summary: Even if the short-term market is constrained by Liq (https://(((((((((x.com))))))/market_gegar/status/2084085146085666979), In the long run, signals of a bear bottom (also known as a bull market) are gradually beginning to emerge, Combining the two periodic bottom signals that appeared earlier: PSIP < 50%（https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2063800180227588374） AVIV Heatmap enters the blue area (https://(((((((((x.com))))))/market_gegar/status/2071773101898223809)) From objective data, we do have to admit that 'the current market is very close to the end of the cycle'. The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone // Related reading resources The latest data update of CVDD for the 'Iron Bottom Myth' https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2084449286927049028 The phenomenon of 'bottom must emerge': the solid foundation formed by massive hand changes at the bottom https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2083006515175387476 Divergent attitudes of funds from two continents: US capital did not withdraw, Asian capital fled first https://(((((((((((x.com)))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2081926743783592189