Mr. Xiaolong's Today's Perspective Predicting Markets: A New Data Source for Trading Research Systems ——It doesn't tell you the answer, it tells you what the market is believing. In the past decade, traders have relied on four things to build their research system: technical analysis, macro data, capital flow, and on chain data. Recently, AI has entered, and the efficiency of information organization and research has indeed reached a new level. But I increasingly feel that a new research dimension is emerging: Prediction Market. Many people see it as a new gameplay, but I prefer to see it as a new data source. It won't replace candlesticks, won't replace on chain data, and won't directly tell you whether Bitcoin will rise or fall tomorrow. What it provides is something that was difficult for traders to obtain in the past: The collective judgment of the market on the probability of future events occurring. The competition among excellent traders in the future is not only a competition of analytical ability, but also a competition of data sources. Whoever has more mutually verifiable information in their hands is more likely to see the true expectations of the market. Predicting the market is most likely the fifth type of data in the trading research system. 1、 What exactly is a predictive market?? When many people first come into contact with this thing, their first reaction is usually: Isn't this gambling? Not really. What is predicted to be traded in the market is not stocks or Bitcoin, but the probability of a future event occurring. for example Can Bitcoin break through $150000 by the end of the year? Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September? Who will be the next President of the United States? Will AI kill programmers first? Who is the World Cup champion? Participants are not buying up and buying down, but expressing their judgment on the future: then the market will form a constantly changing probability. So I prefer to understand it this way: Predicting the market does not predict the future, it trades the market's consensus on the future. 2、 Why do traders need it? Excellent traders never trade in the past, they trade in the future. Why did Bitcoin fall on the day the ETF was approved? Because what really drives prices is not the act of "approval" itself, but the fact that the market has already completed pricing in the process of continuously increasing the probability of approval before the news is announced. The news itself is not that important, expectations are important. This is what the stock market often says: buy on expectations, sell on facts. When the fact is fulfilled, the prediction also ends and the price naturally falls. Predicting the maximum value of the market is not about telling you whether it will rise or fall, but about helping you focus on three things: Firstly, what does the market currently believe. Secondly, how is this expectation changing. Thirdly, has this expectation been absorbed by the price. These pieces of information are sometimes much more useful than the news itself. Because prices are often traded based on expectations, not facts. 3、 How do I put it into my trading system? I have always been focusing on four directions: the strength of long and short positions, the flow of funds, on chain data, and macro cycles. Next, I will officially add the fifth one: predicting the market. Emphasize that it will not replace anything that already exists. The strength of long and short positions in natural trading theory helps me see the direction of the trend clearly, The spatial and technical analysis of natural transaction theory helped me find my position, Macro analysis helps me understand cyclical liquidity, On chain data helps observe the financial behavior of market entities, AI helps me improve efficiency and accuracy, Predicting the market helps me see expectations. The mutual verification of six directions is more reliable than relying solely on any one. A truly excellent trader is not one with more indicators, but one with more data sources. 4、 The global forecasting market is emerging Predicting the market is not a new concept. In 1988, the University of Iowa launched Iowa Electronic Markets, betting on the presidential election with real money. Later, Google and Microsoft also used it internally to guess product release times and sales targets. But the real entry into the rapid development stage is after the emergence of blockchain. Polymarket focuses on global politics and macroeconomics. Kalshi focuses on the US compliance market. PredictIt leans more towards political predictions. Manifold makes community predictions. More and more new platforms are starting to target users of cryptocurrencies, linking the prediction market with the Web3 ecosystem. The development speed of the entire track is faster than many people imagine. In the future, it is highly likely to become a fundamental tool in the trader research system, just like on chain data. 5、 Why did I ultimately choose ForeGate?? In the past few months, I have tried several platforms one after another. My goal is not to find the one with the highest returns, but to find the one that best fits my research habits. The things I pay attention to every day are very fixed: BTC, macro AI、 Technology industry, global hot topics. The direction covered by ForeGate highly overlaps with my research system, so I ultimately kept it. Every day, check BTC price forecasts, macro policy changes, AI industry events, and global technology news, all of which are updated in real-time in the market. What really attracts me is not whether I can make money, but the ability to observe how market expectations change in real time. News updates are facts. Predicting market updates is based on probability. Probability changes are often more worth pondering than news itself. 6、 A real case study on predicting the market A few days ago, I made a prediction at ForeGate: Will Changxin Storage surpass Micron in the global DRAM market share by the third quarter of 2026? Before submitting, I first reviewed industry data, market share, corporate financial reports, and related news, then organized them using AI, and finally returned to ForeGate to compare the probabilities given by the market. This process made me realize that predicting the maximum value of the market is not about telling you the answer, but about showing you how the market views the future now. If my own judgment is consistent with the market probability, I will be more firm in my analysis. If there is a deviation from the market probability, I will re-examine my logic instead of stubbornly sticking to my original judgment. Regardless of whether it ends up right or wrong, this process itself is a complete study, analysis, prediction, and verification. Research trends, predict the future, and validate viewpoints. Truly excellent traders not only trade prices, but constantly verify their own knowledge. This tweet is sponsored by ForeGate ❗ ️ If you are also interested in market prediction and trading research, please feel free to communicate with me. In the future, please also check out the ForeGate prediction platform that I am currently using. My invitation link is: https://go. (foregate.com)/rq5nFhj @ForegateCN @Fore_Gate ForeGate predicts the market