The Fed kept interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% during its July meeting, but three members called for a 25BP hike. The official statement still emphasizes that inflation is above target. As of August 3, the probability of a rate hike on September 17 is 73.6%. Today's latest expectation is 64.7%. This shows that the market's expectation for a September rate hike is increasing (with such high expectations, it's hard for the market to turn bullish in the near term). August data will be crucial—on the 7th, we have the non-farm payroll data, with forecasts at over 80K and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The actual data release will be key. The pressure is on Waller! If all the data strongly supports a rate hike, Can Waller withstand the pressure and keep rates unchanged?