I know many friends who study on-chain data have been waiting for this signal — STH-RP < LTH-RP. What it means is that whenever the average cost of short-term holders (STH-RP) falls below the average cost of long-term holders (LTH-RP), it signals the bottom of a bear market. This signal has never been wrong in the past three cycles. That’s why many analysts treat it as a core characteristic of the market bottom. Here are two points I’d like to share: 1. If this cycle also sees STH-RP < LTH-RP, it’s a signal of the bear market bottom — this is correct. 2. If you say that because every bear market bottom in the past had STH-RP < LTH-RP, this cycle’s bear market bottom must also have it — this is incorrect. The inversion of short- and long-term costs means the market has been operating in a loss-dominated environment for a sufficiently long time, completing the transition from high-price bag holders to low-cost buyers. So, the first point is “logical,” while the second is just “carving a boat to find a sword.” From my observation, on July 28, the 7-day rate of change for LTH-RP was -0.54%, and for STH-RP, it was -0.25%. This indicates that LTH-RP has started to shift from rising to falling, and its rate of decline is faster than that of STH-RP. This has never happened in the past three bear markets, and it has now persisted for seven days. If this situation continues, STH-RP and LTH-RP will never intersect. In other words, when external conditions change, even the most accurate bottom signal in the past can fail. This serves as a reminder to all analysts who rely on “carving a boat” as their guiding principle. If the initial direction is wrong, you might never see the expected result. Only when the preconditions are met can we draw conclusions; we cannot assume the conditions will always be met based on historical patterns.