[The $30 Trillion U.S. Treasury Market Sees Rising Volatility, Long-Term Yield Pressure May Spill Over to Stocks] BlockBeats News, August 4th: The U.S. Treasury market has recently shown signs of tension. The approximately $30 trillion Treasury market is experiencing rapid increases in long-term yields and heightened volatility, raising concerns that pressure in the bond market may further spill over to risk assets like stocks. Data shows that in the last week of July, long-term U.S. Treasury yields accelerated significantly, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2007, and the 10-year Treasury yield breaking out of its trading range for the past two years. The market believes that rising yields reflect investors reassessing the Federal Reserve's commitment to combating inflation. Recently, internal disagreements have emerged within the Fed, with three regional Fed presidents voting in favor of rate hikes, sparking concerns about uncertainty in the future interest rate path. As bond market volatility increases, the MOVE index, a measure of Treasury market volatility, has risen to its highest level since May. Demand for put options related to long-term Treasury ETFs has also surged, as traders are preemptively hedging risks through the options market. Analysts point out that prolonged high Treasury yields could increase global financing costs and exert pressure on stock market valuations. Bob Elliott, Chief Investment Officer at Unlimited Funds, stated that the market is struggling to determine how long equities can sustain themselves at current interest rate levels. Additionally, recent joint intervention by the U.S. and Japan to stabilize the yen has raised concerns about the stability of U.S. Treasuries. Analysts suggest that the U.S. aims to help Japan stabilize its exchange rate while avoiding a large-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasuries that could disrupt the bond market. Looking ahead, the market will focus on the U.S. Treasury Department's financing plans, economic data, and the July non-farm payroll report. Traders believe the core issue in the current market is whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its tightening stance and whether long-term rate pressures will further spread to risk assets. [Original Link]