财经悟空
财经悟空|Aug 04, 2026 03:25
Conditions for $BTC bottoming out: The market needs to hit the final wave of the fifth downward low, completing sufficient accumulation of bottom chips before initiating a major upward trend. The current grinding phase is just a consolidation during the downtrend. The fifth wave of the current downward phase has not yet finished, and the major bottom has not been confirmed. After multiple downward tests and quick recoveries, this is the main force's fake breakdown to flush out low-level retail long positions. It's a trap to confuse retail investors into thinking the bottom is solid. The market won't directly surge upward in a straight line. Most likely, it will first go through a round of upward movement to attract retail long positions to enter en masse and pile up leveraged long chips, followed by a rapid sharp drop to clear out the bottom. The previous bear market also followed a similar pattern: three pushes downward to find the bottom → rebound to accumulate long positions → violent shakeout → trend reversal and upward movement. The current structural trend is highly similar. In the short term, the main force is placing large short orders at 64,300. For those seeking stability, you can consider shorting near this level.
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