Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|8月 03, 2026 22:53
Today's technical analysis: The callback signal has been resolved, and the bulls still control the market Yesterday, it was expected that the index would first retrace to confirm support before continuing to rise, but the market did not give this opportunity and chose to directly break through strongly, indicating that the buying force was stronger than expected. At present, the previously feared pullback signals in the market have been largely digested, with bulls taking the initiative. The next step is to prioritize finding long opportunities as long as there is a short-term pullback. VIX: Volatility continues to be suppressed The VIX daily MACD has turned downwards again and gradually fallen towards the zero axis, indicating that there is still further downward space for volatility. The target levels below are 15 and 12-13 Although there is a slight bottom deviation at the 1-hour level and a technical rebound cannot be ruled out in the short term, the overall trend is still bearish and insufficient to support a significant market adjustment. As long as VIX remains weak, the market will still be in an environment of risk appetite recovery, and the probability of a sharp decline is still relatively low. SPY: Formally entering the confirmation of long positions, with a target of 760 or even a historical high SPY short-term may experience a slight retracement at the 1-hour level, with a focus on the 753 area and the 30 minute EMA 20 area. If the rebound stabilizes and forms a higher low point, the next target will continue to look towards around 760.3, which is the high point on June 2nd. The daily MACD golden cross has re entered the bullish confirmation zone, indicating further strengthening of the upward trend. At present, the index has broken through the high point on July 15th and is heading towards 760.3. Once it breaks through, a new historical high is in sight. The next goal is to achieve a monthly expected volatility of 775.06 for options. This round of upward trend is not only driven by a few heavyweight stocks, but also by the sustained strength of the seven major technologies and a significant improvement in market width, indicating that more and more stocks are beginning to participate in the rise, and this trend is very healthy. QQ: Confirmed to strengthen, entering the stage of supplementary price increase Last week it was mentioned that the direction of QQ could be basically confirmed last Friday and this Monday. At present, QQ has re entered the 20 day and 50 day moving averages, and its short-term structure has significantly improved. Next, we will focus on two objectives: the gap near 705 and the trend line pressure near 708 According to historical experience, SPY usually breaks through first, and then QQQ starts to make up for the gains. Therefore, if SPY enters a short-term oscillation, QQQ has the opportunity to become a stronger performing index in the future. IWM: Small cap stocks begin to relay IWM is currently approaching the expected volatility range for options this week. The 1-hour MACD remains in a strong area, with a significant increase in funds received below. If the daily chart can further confirm a breakthrough, the upward potential will continue to open up, with a reading of 298.70, followed by a high of 302 before July 2nd. Small cap stocks have the opportunity to start relaying to large tech stocks, further improving the breadth of the entire market. US dollar index: Weakening technical form, positive for the entire risk asset market The daily line of the US dollar has confirmed a lower high point, while the weekly line tends to further retrace, providing a favorable macro liquidity environment for the stock market's upward trend. Although there may be a brief rebound at the 1-hour level, there is a high probability that the rebound will fail and continue to decline. The previously mentioned inverted shoulder bottom pattern at the weekly level has now fallen below the neckline and declared the pattern invalid. The US dollar has emerged from a double top around 102 and started to decline. The weakening of the US dollar is positive for the stock market, gold, and Bitcoin. The overall idea is to buy on dips.
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