Adam|Aug 03, 2026 17:31
SpaceX hasn't done much since listing besides making all the IPO top-blasters considerably poorer.
While that's not great, options have been constantly overpricing the move, with IV around 110% against realized at roughly half that.
The whole term structure is backwardated with earnings this week explains part of it, but a lot is structural given the inversion runs all the way out.
I think there is a nice trade in a long calendar, selling the September straddle and buying the October one at the same strike. What you are trading is the forward volatility between the two expirations, which is currently pretty rich.
You get paid if price stays inside ~20% range over the next month or so, with downside capped at the debit rather than open ended the way a naked straddle is.
obviously you are short gamma into a first ever earnings report with no history to price it against, which is not fun, and you are long vega on the back month. So you generally want the SPCX doing not much until September expiration.(Adam)
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