ParBTC Market Monthly Report -8.3 Figure 1: Monthly chart 1) Another month has passed, and it can be seen that after a small plunder of the June low in July, there was a volatile rise, with the highest hitting 67, testing our claim that 673 was rejected and closing at 629 was still relatively weak. 2) Liquidity: ssl ： 49 ， The needle collection here is basically at the bottom position, so you can buy it with confidence. bsl ：829 ， Breaking through here, the monthly level MSB indicates a reversal in the market trend, bullish. FVG: The monthly short-term liquidity gap is at 70, which is the high point I will pay attention to if there is a rebound this month. 3) Still an old topic, I don't know where the bottom is. Currently, my inferred position is still strong at 54, normal at 47, and extreme at 38. Or rather, I prefer to gradually build a warehouse between 54-45. 38 hanging orders to prevent extreme situations. 4) Event data for this month • Friday, August 8th: Non farm NFP (July) - the first heavyweight of the month Tuesday, August 12th: CPI (July) - Can the core CPI continue to fall? The core has cooled down in June Wednesday, August 13th: PPI (July)+initial unemployment benefits Minutes of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, August 19th (July) - Details of internal disagreements in the 9:3 vote Tuesday, August 26th: PCE Price Index (July) - Walsh's Most Important Inflation Indicator • Friday, August 28th: Jackson Hole Walsh keynote speech Summary: There is no interest rate meeting this month, except for non farm CPI and PCE data, the focus is on the end of the month meeting. At the June meeting, three FOMC members have already voted to raise interest rates in July. Walsh previously stated that 'inflation cannot be resolved within 9 weeks' and' it will not endorse market trends'. Pay attention to the 26th and see if Walsh will make a move in Jackson Hole. In addition, after the 26th, NVDA's financial report - this round of AI narrative test, whether NVDA can maintain growth rate, GB300/Blackwell ramp rhythm - will determine the direction of the AI chain in the second half of the year. So, regarding this month's market trend, I think it's fluctuating low, let's see if we can continue to hit new lows. Figure 2: Weekly Chart 1) After testing 67 on the weekly chart last week, I took a shot and then closed negative last week. Currently, the probability of a downward trend is higher, and testing 578 w SSL downwards is more likely. In my personal opinion, I believe that currently, the approximate EQH at positions 67-673 is waiting to be plundered downwards and then upwards. Of course, if the bearish trend continues this week, the probability will increase. 2) If we look at the downward trend for now: If the market is volatile, first check the 612 plundering and then test the reaction around 60 to see if it will rebound. If there is a strong downward trend, it means falling below 578, and then we'll see the situation. Let's first look at positions 54-55 and 49. I don't think it will be too fast. 3) In terms of events, it still depends on whether the US Iran negotiations are ongoing or not, as well as Friday's non farm payroll data. Figure 3: Daily chart 1) The daily line was affected by the news of Trump's toca peace talks at the weekend to supplement fvg, and then fell on Monday as usual. 2) Let's first observe the reaction after plundering the 613 position. The big daily goal is at position 60. 3) There's nothing else to say, let's go bearish for now. Figure 4: Hour chart 1) The hourly chart is showing a clear oscillation and decline. If 638 refuses here, it's bearish. The target is 613 first, then 60 If it breaks through 638, then let's look at the 65 test again.