US-Japan Coordination: Protect Your Wallets, Short-Term Relief for the Yen, Long-Term Depends on Interest Rate Differentials The yen defense battle has officially escalated. On July 31, the US and Japan jointly purchased yen, marking the first coordinated support for the yen since 1998. USD/JPY quickly dropped from above 163 to 155.20, significantly increasing the tail risk for shorting the yen. Key takeaways: ① Signals Over Ammunition Japan's two rounds of intervention are estimated to involve around 14–15 trillion yen, but the exact amount has not yet been disclosed. The Japanese Ministry of Finance will only release monthly data covering post-July 30 activities on August 28. ② Intervention Changes the Slope, Interest Rate Differentials Decide the Trend US involvement greatly enhances the policy's deterrent effect, but if the US-Japan interest rate differential doesn’t narrow, the BOJ’s tightening remains insufficient, and oil prices continue to rise, the yen could weaken again. A sustained reversal requires alignment of “intervention + interest rate differential + energy.” ③ Asset Transmission In the short term, forex markets lean bullish on the yen, with 150–155 being the key battleground. A return above 160 would signal diminishing intervention effects. Japanese export stocks face pressure, while domestic demand, imports, and financials are relatively better positioned. Japanese bond yields face upward pressure, while US Treasuries are caught between safe-haven buying and Japan adjusting its dollar assets. In short: Intervention determines short-term direction, interest rate differentials determine trend longevity. Historical annual average exchange rates use the Fed/FRED standard; 2025 is projected at 149.57, and 2026 is a YTD estimate. US-Japan confirm joint currency intervention. 30-year US Treasury: Peak or New Starting Point? bitcoin:native