Phyrex|8月 02, 2026 18:48
Trump's TACO came three days later than predicted. I remember posting a tweet last week about how a U.S. institution calculated the timing of Trump's possible TACO using the relationship between oil, the dollar, and U.S. bonds. Back then, they said it would happen on July 30, and honestly, that prediction was already pretty accurate. Compared to that, I'm not too worried about Trump—after all, the U.S. midterm elections are coming up soon, and Trump won't have much energy to focus on Iran.
So next, we’ll have to see what Iran does. Actually, on the 24th, even though the U.S. didn’t announce anything, the sudden ceasefire and rumors of preparing for peace talks with Iran could be considered a form of TACO. But that possibility was blown up by Iran itself. Even after Iran’s attack, while the U.S. talked tough, they didn’t escalate further, which seems like a precautionary move.
I didn’t really follow the price movements today, but I know that the WTI I chased at $82 last week is now profitable, not to mention the even higher-priced Brent. I’m still a bit torn about closing my position. Last week was a rollercoaster ride, and now I plan to be more politically sensitive. If Iran actively attacks the U.S. under these circumstances, I’ll most likely take profits and continue shorting on the highs. But if Iran holds back and just talks big, I might keep holding.
In yesterday’s post, I mentioned that I’d likely be able to buy Bitcoin at $63,000, but I really didn’t expect Bitcoin to rise because of Trump after MSTR’s drop. This caused me to miss my $63,000 bottom-buying opportunity. There’s another fund settlement on Monday, so I’m not sure if I’ll get another chance. Personally, I think $60,000 to $65,000 is a good buying range.
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