Rocky
Rocky|Aug 02, 2026 14:19
Save this image well, perhaps you will benefit for life! Many friends ask me why I had to clear all my A-shares and most of my US stock positions on June 23rd, because the average stock price of A-shares has already peaked. Looking back at the past few bull markets in A-shares, they were all driven by strong policy factors and coordinated by the central bank. From 2005 to 2007, the shareholding reform was a system dividend, coupled with the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB appreciated significantly, hot money poured in, and policies and funds brought about the most fervent rise. From 2008 to 2010, with a strong market rescue of 4 trillion yuan, the central bank flooded the market, significantly reduced interest rates and reserve requirements ratios, and provided extremely loose credit, achieving a rapid surge in A-shares. From 2013 to 2015, "Internet plus" entrepreneurship prevailed, overlapping M&A and restructuring policies were relaxed, financing and financing restrictions were relaxed, OTC capital allocation grew savagely, and the concept of technology stocks was hyped crazily. At that time, LeEco was the representative. From 2018 to 2021, the first year of value investment, the tide of public offering and core assets, cash cows, northbound funds and public funds hold the pricing power, and funds are highly concentrated in Baijiu, new energy ("Mao Index", "Ning Portfolio") and other industry leaders. From 2024 to 2026, a combination of financial policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, innovative stock repurchase and refinancing mechanisms established by the central bank, support from national funds for domestic chip substitution, and the AI industry have brought about a sharp rise! It can be seen that almost every round of A-share bull market has several core characteristics, such as strong support from national policies or funds, coupled with continuous monetary policy stimulus (reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts), achieving rapid rise and harvest market. The cycle is like a pendulum, never stopping, with similar patterns. Moreover, with the linkage of northbound funds and the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect, the trend of China and the United States has lagged by 1-2 months from before, and now it has been basically shortened to 2-4 weeks. However, there are still many time difference arbitrage ideas. For example, for MLCC, when Shenzhen Huaqiangbei started to grab MRAAY ceramic capacitors, the spot price and stock price showed a phenomenon of hoarding and price increase in offline physical spot since February, while Murata's stock price only started to rise from $11 to $38 on April 1st. China's MLCC leader, Fenghua High tech, only started to launch in mid April, rising from 20 to 83, two weeks late. There are still many opportunities for arbitrage across time differences. But currently, it has basically reached its peak. Changxin's listing is a sign that the national team is an excellent trader with a beautiful picture. Waiting for the turning point of the next cycle, patience is the best weapon for investment. Next, you can instead use the profitable funds to look at the long sideways trend of gold and BTC, for reference only! This article is sponsored by @ binancezh, titled 'Binance Buying US Stocks: Global Assets, Zero Second Time Difference, One Click Delivery'!
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