白极熊 | Baxiom
白极熊 | Baxiom|Aug 02, 2026 08:23
New highs for U.S. Treasury yields! How should you make investment decisions with $10 million right now? ⚠️ Warning: Hot money doesn’t mean hot-headed decisions—stay calm and think it through. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, the highest since July 2007. Yields for 2Y/10Y/30Y are at 4.28%/4.75%/5.27%, respectively, with a noticeably steeper curve. Essentially, this reflects a return to the U.S. dollar and can be seen as one of the tools of a tightening monetary policy. At times like this, don’t let hot money cloud your judgment. The FOMC maintained rates at 9–3, but three votes were in favor of a hike. Inflation, fiscal supply, and term premium are creating a “triple resonance” effect. Yields above 5% are both an opportunity to lock in rates and a duration trap: stagger long-term bonds, prioritize short- to medium-term bonds, TIPS, and cash, and reduce leverage on growth stocks. Don’t go all-in betting on 'rate peaks.' The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hits a 19-year high.
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