Cindy胖迪🥰
Cindy胖迪🥰|Aug 02, 2026 04:29
I'm thinking if the ETH/BTC exchange rate data doesn't hold much value. The last round was because of this data, I bought 1500 ETH at the bottom without BTC, which was quite aggressive. If this round continues to follow this logic of bottom fishing, will we soon reach the bottom? But I think this reason is very weak! What is the significance of the ETH/BTC exchange rate data? ETH is the king of shanzhai, representing all emotional flows. So in a bull market, BTC always rises first, stirring up the market's mood, and then another wave of E drives retail investors to rush into knockoffs! On the contrary, when its market share reaches its lowest point, it also represents that market sentiment has reached freezing point. However, in the previous round, I made a misjudgment and did not have a substantial knockoff season. So how to determine the vertex? I didn't sell at the highest point! When the exchange rate reached 0.017, the highest rebound was only 0.034, not even reaching 0.05. You should know that the highest breakthrough has been 0.08. So we have to think about a question, where has the liquidity of the market gone? The issuance of so many stablecoins did not flow into infrastructure such as ETH. Many people say it's because of the narrative, there's no new narrative, but this round so many institutions are entering, all focusing on new narratives such as asset on chain. I think it's a fundamental change in the liquidity structure: 22 years ago, the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market was mainly driven by individual investors, and funds were bought, sold, and held in a predictable manner based on narrative heat and market value. The rise of a certain type of asset will drive the downward transmission of market value rankings, forming a momentum chase across the entire market, thus giving rise to the counterfeit season. The structure has now undergone a complete transformation, with the vast majority of funds entering through institutional channels such as Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.), corporate financial reserves, and custodian institutions. Investors only buy through securities firms, and their funds are locked in the largest assets such as BTC and ETH, without turning to random altcoins. The liquidity that creates the conditions for the counterfeit coin season is now trapped in regulated products for top assets. This directly leads to a continuous surge in the market value of BTC, while most altcoins continue to bleed and perform poorly. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ So, the signal indicators for bottom fishing need to undergo a fundamental transformation: I am currently using AI @ openclawby to monitor the movements of large funds such as ETF inflows and BTC dark pool trading data. On the contrary, judging the high point is the same! The bottom fishing structure also needs a fundamental transformation, with funds mainly placed in BTC and other assets dispersed in ETFs. What do you think?
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