degentrading|Jul 31, 2026 11:13
Pre Market Thoughts - 31 Jul 26
Yields almost unchanged in the US. Interestingly, BOJ has started to intervene in currency markets, spending ~50B in selling down USDJPY.
In US market, we had very interesting price action given the liquidation of SALP's public equities portfolio with Citadel. We had the entire neocloud sector rerating 15%-30% - led by NBIS. Other Leo tickers like BE also saw similar gains. From the data i see, Citadel Securities is slowly trimming down the portfolio. C/S also probably bought the equivalent of $100 NBIS and $100 BE. As a result, he has alot of PnL buffer to monetise his position. Especially against people who shorted into this.
In Asia trading, KOSPI rallied 18%, while NKY was up 4%. $0660 is up 30% today, with $285A up 5%. $285A initially had a drop from 46K JPY to 41K JPY - this was when i came onto X and told you that Kioxia is giving you an entry. If you took it. Good for you. It sits at 49K now. Just a recap, Kioxia is a 4X P/E stock that is about to rebuy 5% of its shares outstanding. I would have cared more about it missing expectations if 285A was still at 100K JPY. But at current levels AND from how it wants to repurchase stock instead of investing in Capex? Very shareholder friendly.
Likewise, yesterday i mentioned SKHY as one of my holdings that i liked. This is because Samsung is likely to engage in buybacks - I believe that SK Hynix will follow suit as well.
Post the leveraged apes getting rinsed on memory, who are the buyers left? My answer to you - is the companies themselves. Both SKHY and Samsung will be under pressure from the government o engage in shareholder friendly activities. Also it helps that the SK's Chey needs to finance a 600M divorce settlement.
Neoclouds - I have been banging the drum on this. I strongly believe that Neoclouds will be leading the next rally. I shall include this in every pre market thought from hence on - just to hammer this point in.
We are in a compute shortage. That shortage is WORSENING. (You can check the data tab at http://terminal.gambit.zone for compute data)
Next - on markets. I made this point multiple times. Bulls make money, bears make money but PIGS get slaughtered. Obviously being a bull has a better R/R than being a bear. If you cannot last the journey, then nothing matters. The only reason i could bottom buy is because i managed my cash and my risk well. If anyone went short into the week and didnt cover?...good luck. The bears probably got absolutely creamed.
Again, for the crypto bros reading this. Stocks have fundamentals. In the short term, pricing is determined by flows. In the longer term pricing is determined by fundamental because corporates have many levers to influence their valuations. This is not your shitcoin that apparently prints 100M in revenue but somehow trades at 50M. Your shitcoin has no ability to funnel dividends or do real buybacks (without selling from side wallets). It is ok to be a momentum trader, but dont delude yourself into fabricating fundamentals for your momentum.
Delusion is a powerful drug.
Finally, if you survived thus far. Congrats, this was one of the most predatory and insane price action since 2000. You have earned the right to continue with the rest of the cycle.
On trading, i will be sticking to my game plan. Over the weekend, i may release some longer form content on some of these companies.
Good luck!(degentrading)
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