[Bitunix Analyst: Cooling Inflation Data Has Not Changed the True Source of Pressure on Global Assets] BlockBeats News, July 31 — The U.S. June PCE monthly rate unexpectedly turned negative, with core PCE monthly growth at only 0.1%, and annualized GDP growth also falling short of market expectations. While this seems to provide evidence of cooling inflation and economic slowdown, a breakdown of GDP structure reveals that private final demand, consumption, and AI-related corporate investments remain robust, indicating that economic momentum has not significantly deteriorated. This explains why the market has not fully bet on easing policies despite weaker data, instead focusing on policy credibility and global funding costs. More notably, the Japanese government appears to have coordinated with the U.S. for exchange rate intervention, while South Korea has reportedly intervened by selling dollars. Although the Bank of Japan has maintained its interest rates, some members have advocated for rate hikes. Similarly, three members of the Bank of England have expressed support for raising rates. This demonstrates that central banks worldwide remain cautious or even hawkish in their approach to monetary policy when facing inflation and exchange rate pressures. This suggests that the global liquidity environment has not fundamentally changed due to a single month of cooling U.S. inflation data but is instead maintaining tightened financial conditions through various measures. On the other hand, the fundamentals of the tech industry remain solid. Amazon AWS revenue exceeded expectations, Oracle continues to expand its collaboration with Google, and OpenAI has once again lowered its model pricing. The competition in AI is gradually shifting from model capabilities to cost efficiency and enterprise application penetration. In contrast, Apple's performance in the Chinese market and its services business has been relatively weak, reflecting a divergence in end-consumer demand. This may further widen the valuation gap between beneficiaries of AI infrastructure and terminal hardware manufacturers. Looking ahead, the market needs to focus not only on whether the U.S. will cut or raise interest rates but also on whether major global central banks will collectively maintain tight financial conditions through interest rates, exchange rate interventions, and policy communication. If expectations for rate hikes in Japan continue to rise and Asian central banks persist in intervening in currency markets, global arbitrage capital flows and dollar liquidity may continue to adjust. Meanwhile, AI investments and corporate profits will remain key fundamentals supporting risk assets. The tug-of-war between these two forces is expected to keep market volatility at relatively high levels in the third quarter.