Phyrex
Phyrex|Jul 30, 2026 04:05
My views differ slightly from Teacher Jiang's. First of all, there’s really no point in raising rates at the July meeting this time. Looking at the inflation data, June showed a decline. Although the war has restarted and inflation might rise again, the Fed doesn’t act on forecasts—it only looks at the data. Powell has been doing this for four years now. So, not raising rates in July is actually pretty normal. Plus, all of Waller’s current actions haven’t shown any connection to Trump. In fact, during this press conference, almost no reporters asked about Waller’s political ties to Trump. Side note: among the three Fed voting members supporting a rate hike this time, one of them is a Republican. At least for now, Waller seems to be maintaining the Fed’s independence. Of course, no one can say for sure what will happen in the future, and I also believe that Waller will align with Trump on major issues. But as of now, even the picky American journalists don’t have much to criticize about Waller’s performance. Also, I personally don’t think Waller’s speech this time was dovish. On the contrary, it was slightly hawkish. Mainly because Waller mentioned observing the impact of rate adjustments on the market. Even though the Fed hasn’t done anything, the market has already started tightening. That statement felt a bit hawkish to me. Overall, it leans slightly hawkish with a neutral tone. Many analysts think it’s dovish because Waller said he doesn’t want to surprise the market. This basically means that if the Fed plans to raise rates, they’ll signal it to the market. But actually, this applies to rate cuts as well. Of course, this is just my personal take. It might not be correct.
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